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ISAMU V1 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$17.89
Advertised RTP
87.48%
EV $15.65 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.57%
8,199 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.17%±17.13868 openings
7 days
86.86%±6.216,551 openings
30 days
86.57%±5.558,199 openings
since tracking started
86.57%±5.558,199 openings
62.5%80.3%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h86880.17%±17.1−0.9σodds
7d6,55186.86%±6.21−0.2σodds
30d8,19986.57%±5.55−0.3σodds
All8,19986.57%±5.55−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,200 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 30$21345.3%268273.30.98×
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 30$14931.7%271273.30.99×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 30$50.8610.8%285273.31.04×
AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 30$29.166.2%258273.30.94×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 60$5.520.6%0136.60.00×
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 90$4.110.3%091.10.00×
AWP | Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 90$3.870.3%091.10.00×
AWP | Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 90$3.820.3%091.10.00×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 60$3.600.4%0136.70.00×
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 60$2.420.3%0136.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 30$2.300.5%242273.30.89×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 60$1.680.2%0136.60.00×
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 90$1.380.1%091.10.00×
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 30$1.330.3%269273.30.98×
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 60$1.320.1%0136.70.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 30$1.300.3%303273.31.11×
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 90$1.250.1%091.10.00×
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 60$1.250.1%0136.60.00×
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 90$1.160.1%091.10.00×
P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 60$1.120.1%0136.70.00×
M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 60$1.030.1%0136.60.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 120$1.010.1%068.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 120$0.950.1%068.30.00×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 30$0.930.2%246273.30.90×
P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.840.1%0136.70.00×
Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 90$0.840.1%091.10.00×
USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 90$0.830.1%091.10.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 120$0.810.0%068.30.00×
MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.810.1%0136.70.00×
SCAR-20 | Caged (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.810.1%0136.70.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 120$0.780.0%068.30.00×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 60$0.730.1%0136.70.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 120$0.720.0%068.40.00×
M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 60$0.670.1%0136.70.00×
SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.660.1%0136.70.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 120$0.610.0%068.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 120$0.600.0%068.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 120$0.570.0%068.40.00×
USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 90$0.550.0%091.10.00×
P2000 | Imperial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 30$0.500.1%293273.31.07×
USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 90$0.490.0%091.10.00×
Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 30$0.490.1%295273.31.08×
Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 90$0.460.0%091.10.00×
Galil AR | Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 90$0.440.0%091.20.00×
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 30$0.350.1%283273.41.04×
Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 30$0.310.1%280273.41.02×
SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 60$0.290.0%0136.70.00×
SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.240.0%0136.70.00×
P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 30$0.240.1%253273.40.93×
P250 | Bullfrog (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.230.0%0136.70.00×
MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 60$0.230.0%0136.70.00×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight1 in 30$0.190.0%290273.41.06×
M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight1 in 30$0.170.0%275273.41.01×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/isamu-v1-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$17.53$0.900.05x
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$17.53$1367.76x
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dartweapon · violet$17.53$1.880.11x
SG 553 | Darkwingweapon · violetSTANKO BICEPS$17.53$1.200.07x
SG 553 | Darkwingweapon · violet$17.53$1.200.07x
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$17.53$0.900.05x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMatekwiertara$17.53$49.662.83x
M4A4 | Evil Daimyoweapon · violet$17.53$4.690.27x
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dartweapon · violet$17.53$1.880.11x
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueMatekwiertara$17.53$0.350.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$17.8987.48%53
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$18.3487.49%53
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$18.1787.49%53
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC$17.8687.52%53
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$17.8087.51%53
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$18.1087.51%53
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$17.9287.51%53
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$18.0687.51%53
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$17.9287.51%53
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$18.0687.51%53
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$18.2487.52%53
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$18.2987.50%53
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$18.2487.52%53
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$18.1587.48%53
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$18.2487.52%53
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC$17.8887.50%53
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$17.8885.69%53
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC$18.1287.51%53
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC$18.4887.51%53
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$18.4387.50%53
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.0%classified 3.3%restricted 10.0%pink 3.3%Mythical 12.8%violet 7.8%#8847ff 6.1%mil spec 5.0%blue 25.0%Rare 3.3%#4b69ff 3.3%milspec 3.3%blueLight 6.7%best hit —