ISAMU V2
A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $17.50 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.00%
8,706 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,725 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/isamu-v2, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $20.00 | 87.25% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $20.00 | 87.30% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $20.00 | 87.69% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $20.00 | 87.54% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $20.00 | 87.58% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $20.00 | 87.75% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $20.00 | 87.70% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.73% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $20.00 | 87.70% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $20.00 | 87.73% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $20.00 | 87.29% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $20.00 | 87.54% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $20.00 | 87.49% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $20.00 | 87.31% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $20.00 | 87.55% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $20.00 | 87.57% | 59 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.84% | 59 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.37% | 59 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%classified 13.5%covert 0.6%restricted 2.6%red 6.4%Ancient 2.4%pink 12.7%#d32ee6 19.1%Mythical 10.8%violet 4.9%Classified 0.7%blue 7.5%Rare 1.5%#8847ff 9.6%uncommon 3.1%#4b69ff 4.7%best hit $1,620 (81.01x)