KAERYKA

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$7.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $6.56 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.97%

12.7K openings, odds method

Variance

8.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.91%±13.191,948 openings

7 days

87.39%±5.5311K openings

30 days

86.97%±5.1412.7K openings

since tracking started

86.97%±5.1412.7K openings

79.0%93.0%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,948	92.91%±13.2	+0.8σ	odds
7d	11K	87.39%±5.53	−0.0σ	odds
30d	12.7K	86.97%±5.14	−0.2σ	odds
All	12.7K	86.97%±5.14	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20,000	$2,262	1.7%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$793	1.6%	3	1.7	1.81×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$616	1.6%	2	2.2	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2	1 in 4,762	$134	0.4%	0	2.7	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,235	$123	1.5%	8	10.3	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)weapon · red · Phase 2	1 in 2,857	$102	0.5%	0	4.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,326	$90.99	0.6%	0	5.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$56.82	0.6%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,010	$45.56	0.7%	0	12.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 690	$40.36	0.9%	0	18.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 385	$38.14	1.5%	39	33.2	1.18×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 699	$38.08	0.8%	0	18.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$26.30	7.0%	0	223.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$22.44	13.0%	0	483.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$15.18	5.5%	0	304.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$14.82	5.7%	0	319.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$14.67	5.7%	0	326.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 79	$12.78	2.5%	0	161.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$11.45	4.6%	0	339.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 42	$8.86	3.2%	0	302.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$7.89	1.8%	0	192.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$7.65	3.6%	0	392.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$7.60	5.3%	0	589.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$7.60	5.3%	0	589.0	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 120	$7.34	0.9%	0	106.4	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 120	$7.10	0.9%	0	106.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 131	$6.73	0.8%	0	97.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 169	$6.18	0.6%	0	75.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 84	$4.90	0.9%	0	152.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 73	$4.88	1.0%	0	174.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$4.80	1.1%	0	184.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 73	$4.45	0.9%	0	174.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$4.24	1.1%	0	219.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$4.16	1.1%	0	218.0	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 95	$4.08	0.7%	0	134.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 184	$3.86	0.3%	0	69.3	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$3.64	0.7%	0	157.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 80	$3.60	0.7%	0	160.3	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 46	$3.56	1.2%	0	279.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 81	$3.30	0.6%	0	157.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 81	$3.30	0.6%	0	157.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 124	$3.06	0.4%	0	102.9	0.00×
Sticker \| Chrome Dome (Holo)sticker · violet	1 in 21	$2.88	2.1%	629	604.8	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 179	$2.78	0.2%	0	71.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$2.71	0.7%	0	207.7	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 53	$1.58	0.5%	0	241.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 41	$1.38	0.5%	0	313.5	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.29	1.3%	903	833.9	1.08×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.24	1.3%	878	847.3	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$1.21	0.5%	0	376.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 53	$1.16	0.3%	0	242.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.15	1.2%	849	873.2	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 51	$1.13	0.3%	0	251.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 43	$1.01	0.4%	0	294.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$0.89	0.6%	0	534.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/kaeryka, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$7.50$805107.3x6d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$7.50$793105.8x17h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertkapodeputant$7.50$793105.8x22h

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$7.50$62983.88x1d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$7.50$60280.30x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Chrome Dome (Holo)sticker · violet$7.50$2.880.38x2m

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pink$7.50$6.060.81x2m

MAC-10 | Saibā Oniweapon · violet.$7.50$1.520.20x2m

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$7.50$1.150.15x5m

M4A1-S | Decimatorweapon · pink$7.50$17.432.32x5m

AWP | Green Energyweapon · pink$7.50$5.140.69x5m

UMP-45 | Wild Childweapon · pinkOxej_0-CS2.ME-skins.army$7.50$4.100.55x5m

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pink$7.50$6.060.81x6m

Glock-18 | Vogueweapon · pink$7.50$7.240.97x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$7.50	87.50%	55
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$7.50	87.85%	55
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$7.50	87.15%	55
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$7.50	87.61%	55
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$7.50	87.43%	55
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$7.50	87.03%	55
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$7.50	87.43%	55
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$7.50	87.11%	55
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$7.50	87.67%	55
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$7.50	87.33%	55
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$7.50	87.86%	55
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$7.50	87.69%	55
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$7.50	87.86%	55
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$7.50	87.29%	55
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$7.50	86.34%	55
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$7.50	87.29%	55
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$7.50	87.72%	55
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$7.50	87.70%	55
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$7.50	87.21%	55
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$7.50	87.30%	55

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%red 0.0%Ancient 0.6%pink 17.8%classified 19.0%Legendary 7.2%Mythical 3.6%#d32ce6 3.0%rare 0.8%#d32ee6 1.2%blue 4.7%violet 31.5%uncommon 0.6%Rare 1.9%#8847ff 5.4%common 2.3%best hit $805 (107.3x)