KINGDOM

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$46.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $40.69 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.44%

3,508 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

102.78%±19.73353 openings

7 days

86.78%±6.833,132 openings

30 days

87.44%±6.463,508 openings

since tracking started

87.44%±6.463,508 openings

79.5%101.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	353	102.78%±19.7	+1.5σ	odds
7d	3,132	86.78%±6.83	−0.2σ	odds
30d	3,508	87.44%±6.46	−0.0σ	odds
All	3,508	87.44%±6.46	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 4,167	$2,364	1.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 4,000	$2,296	1.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 4,000	$2,285	1.4%	0	0.9	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,099	$621	1.4%	5	3.2	1.57×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,053	$594	1.4%	5	3.3	1.50×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 885	$501	1.4%	6	4.0	1.51×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 885	$499	1.4%	6	4.0	1.51×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 794	$446	1.4%	4	4.4	0.90×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 549	$309	1.4%	6	6.4	0.94×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 543	$304	1.4%	12	6.5	1.86×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 532	$298	1.4%	10	6.6	1.52×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 450	$252	1.4%	7	7.8	0.90×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 133	$157	2.9%	18	26.4	0.68×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 129	$152	2.9%	30	27.3	1.10×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 128	$151	2.9%	23	27.4	0.84×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 125	$148	2.9%	25	28.0	0.89×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 109	$128	2.9%	25	32.3	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Phase 2)weapon · red · Phase 2	1 in 106	$126	2.9%	30	33.0	0.91×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 104	$123	2.9%	34	33.7	1.01×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 104	$123	2.9%	29	33.8	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 242	$122	1.2%	0	14.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) (Phase 4)weapon · red · Phase 4	1 in 19	$107	13.7%	154	183.3	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 29	$91.57	7.9%	0	122.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3)weapon · red · Phase 3	1 in 16	$89.86	13.7%	189	218.4	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.3%	$21.04	5.3%	353	359.9	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.7%	$12.45	3.9%	447	444.0	1.01×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	12.7%	$12.26	3.8%	464	446.7	1.04×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	12.7%	$12.24	3.8%	455	447.0	1.02×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	13.7%	$10.27	3.4%	477	479.5	0.99×
G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	14.3%	$9.13	3.2%	546	502.6	1.09×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/kingdom, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$46.50$2,36350.82x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2★jawaan★$46.50$2,31249.72x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$46.50$2,29649.38x1h

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireC1N0$46.50$64813.93x7d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireMatuss Natsuki CS2.ME$46.50$64713.91x6d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireWojciech Suchodolski CSGOSKINS$46.50$62113.36x18h

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Ta(h)riK$46.50$61513.22x4d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$46.50$61313.18x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Puzonik$46.50$61113.13x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blueNRForceTomi$46.50$12.240.26x1m

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$46.50$2525.42x1h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 1)weapon · red · Phase 1$46.50$94.842.04x1h

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$46.50$12.240.26x1h

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSoBoL BuK$46.50$21.040.45x1h

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$46.50$12.240.26x1h

MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$46.50$21.040.45x1h

XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blueSoBoL BuK$46.50$12.240.26x1h

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue$46.50$12.260.26x1h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 3)weapon · red · Phase 3$46.50$89.861.93x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$46.50	87.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$46.50	87.69%	30
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$46.50	87.43%	30
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$46.50	87.46%	30
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$46.50	87.37%	30
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$46.50	87.79%	30
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$46.50	87.91%	30
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$46.50	87.38%	30
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$46.50	87.70%	30
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$46.50	87.94%	30
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$46.50	87.04%	30
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$46.50	87.58%	30
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$46.50	87.83%	30
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$46.50	87.39%	30
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$46.50	87.31%	30
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$46.50	87.49%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.9%red 12.5%gold 0.2%mil spec 10.3%restricted 12.7%blue 53.5%best hit $2,363 (50.82x)