KNIFE PARTY
A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$5.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.59 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.59%
84.4K openings, odds method
Variance
51.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 143
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/knife-party, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $5.25 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.25 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.25 | 87.67% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $5.25 | 87.28% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $5.25 | 87.39% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $5.25 | 87.21% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $5.25 | 87.38% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $5.25 | 87.60% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $5.25 | 87.32% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $5.25 | 87.60% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $5.25 | 87.69% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $5.25 | 87.24% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.25 | 87.73% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.25 | 87.62% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.25 | 88.35% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $5.25 | 87.62% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $5.25 | 87.66% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.25 | 87.66% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $5.25 | 87.31% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $5.25 | 87.86% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $5.25 | 87.60% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%epic 0.0%sunny 0.1%gold 1.4%restricted 9.6%violet 43.1%#8847ff 22.0%blue 23.2%best hit $1,135 (216.2x)