KNIFE PARTY JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$405.05
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $354.42 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.43%
781 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
54.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 787 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/knife-party-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $405 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $406 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $407 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $408 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $407 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $408 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $410 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $409 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $408 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $407 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $411 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $411 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $410 | 87.50% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $409 | 87.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 41.7%epic 8.3%sunny 6.3%gold 12.5%restricted 6.3%violet 12.5%#8847ff 6.3%blue 6.3%best hit $1,138 (2.79x)