LAST WISH
A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $10.50 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.17%
7,194 openings, odds method
Variance
2.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
69.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
31.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,198 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 33,333 | $2,029 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 14,286 | $1,123 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 10,000 | $881 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 5,000 | $508 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 10,000 | $393 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 2,000 | $147 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 200 | $93.52 | 4.5% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 68.4% | $12.58 | 81.9% | 4,772 | 4923.4 | 0.97× |
| SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 12 | $10.31 | 8.5% | 681 | 621.2 | 1.10× |
| SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 22.4% | $0.43 | 0.9% | 1,705 | 1610.2 | 1.06× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/last-wish, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $12.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $12.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $12.00 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $12.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $12.00 | 87.41% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $12.00 | 87.98% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $12.00 | 87.81% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $12.00 | 87.43% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $12.00 | 87.59% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $12.00 | 87.46% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $12.00 | 87.43% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $12.00 | 87.53% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $12.00 | 87.55% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $12.00 | 87.53% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $12.00 | 87.45% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $12.00 | 87.46% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $12.00 | 87.81% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%red 0.1%rare 0.5%classified 77.0%violet 22.4%best hit $905 (75.38x)