LAST WISH JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$594.91
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $520.55 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.80%
230 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 268 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 10.0% | $2,038 | 39.1% | 18 | 26.8 | 0.67× |
| ★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $1,128 | 21.7% | 32 | 26.8 | 1.19× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 10.0% | $871 | 16.7% | 37 | 26.8 | 1.38× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $506 | 9.7% | 21 | 26.8 | 0.78× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 10.0% | $398 | 7.6% | 32 | 26.8 | 1.19× |
| AWP | CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 10.0% | $149 | 2.9% | 20 | 26.8 | 0.75× |
| AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $93.90 | 1.8% | 24 | 26.8 | 0.90× |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $12.44 | 0.2% | 32 | 26.8 | 1.19× |
| SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $10.37 | 0.2% | 27 | 26.8 | 1.01× |
| SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $0.46 | 0.0% | 25 | 26.8 | 0.93× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/last-wish-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $595 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $593 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $602 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $598 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $602 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $603 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $599 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $600 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $601 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $600 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $605 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $601 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $605 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $608 | 87.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 50.0%red 10.0%rare 10.0%classified 20.0%violet 10.0%best hit $2,093 (3.44x)