LORD

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$200.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $175.01 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.04%

2,944 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.16%±8.50388 openings

7 days

90.54%±3.392,554 openings

30 days

90.04%±3.162,944 openings

since tracking started

90.04%±3.162,944 openings

84.0%93.2%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	388	93.16%±8.50	+1.3σ	odds
7d	2,554	90.54%±3.39	+1.7σ	odds
30d	2,944	90.04%±3.16	+1.6σ	odds
All	2,944	90.04%±3.16	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,964 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$2,804	0.8%	1	1.5	0.67×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$1,435	0.7%	6	2.7	2.25×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 833	$1,138	0.8%	3	3.6	0.84×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 833	$1,073	0.7%	8	3.6	2.25×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 556	$759	0.8%	8	5.3	1.50×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$662	5.5%	32	43.0	0.74×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 61	$580	5.5%	49	48.9	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$566	5.5%	44	50.1	0.88×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$397	9.0%	136	118.0	1.15×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 23	$365	9.0%	131	128.3	1.02×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$342	4.1%	0	61.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	15.4%	$280	24.7%	0	457.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$189	4.4%	95	119.7	0.79×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 22	$140	3.6%	140	134.6	1.04×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 51	$135	1.5%	0	58.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$131	3.5%	132	138.1	0.96×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 19	$103	3.0%	140	152.6	0.92×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 33	$99.48	1.7%	0	88.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$83.95	2.7%	190	165.1	1.15×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$81.55	2.6%	145	167.2	0.87×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16	$66.66	2.3%	184	181.1	1.02×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 16	$58.64	2.2%	201	190.6	1.05×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 15	$51.67	2.0%	182	200.7	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 14	$43.39	1.8%	188	215.2	0.87×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$37.47	1.6%	233	227.9	1.02×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/lord, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAuguś$200$2,84214.21x4d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedTolukiTo$200$1,4837.42x4d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$200$1,4817.41x5d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$200$1,4697.34x2d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSuzii$200$1,4217.10x5d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedCRISTIANO RONALDO$200$1,4217.10x6d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$200$1,4217.10x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertBOMBÁSZFORMÁSZ$200$1,2146.07x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertFreJzi$200$1,1875.94x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$200$1,1775.89x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Case Hardenedweapon · pinkRysiu$200$2871.44x22m

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · goldRysiu$200$7593.79x22m

★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertRysiu$200$3971.99x22m

★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendaryRysiu$200$3651.82x22m

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Well-Worn)gloves · sunnyRysiu$200$51.670.26x22m

AK-47 | Case Hardenedweapon · pinkRysiu$200$2871.44x22m

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryRysiu$200$37.470.19x22m

AK-47 | Case Hardenedweapon · pinkRysiu$200$2871.44x22m

★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertRysiu$200$81.550.41x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$200	87.50%	25
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$200	87.55%	25
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$200	87.34%	25
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$200	87.76%	25
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$200	87.50%	25
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$200	87.48%	25
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$200	87.50%	25
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$200	87.61%	25
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$200	87.48%	25
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$200	87.53%	25
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$200	87.42%	25
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$200	87.66%	25
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$200	87.32%	25
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$200	87.61%	25
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$200	87.32%	25
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$200	87.61%	25
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$200	87.59%	25
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$200	87.52%	25
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$200	87.32%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 37.5%classified 19.1%extraordinary 14.2%gold 3.2%restricted 1.7%legendary 4.3%pink 4.0%Immortal 2.0%sunny 6.8%Ancient 7.3%best hit $2,842 (14.21x)