MAGMA
A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.88 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.49%
77.6K openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.71% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.83% – 86.15%, 77,566 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/magma, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 87.49% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 88.11% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 87.54% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1.00 | 87.79% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1.00 | 87.54% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1.00 | 87.91% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1.00 | 87.69% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1.00 | 87.60% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 87.94% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.90% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 87.58% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.00 | 86.64% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.98% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1.00 | 88.22% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 87.92% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $1.00 | 87.62% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.14% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 2.2%legendary 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert 0.0%pink 1.7%classified 0.0%Classified 0.0%Mythical 7.4%#8847ff 14.4%restricted 18.5%Restricted 0.3%violet 4.2%Rare 9.8%mil spec 1.0%blue 29.9%#4b69ff 8.7%Mil Spec Grade 1.9%best hit $124 (124.1x)