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MAGMA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$49.87
Advertised RTP
87.49%
EV $43.63 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.74%
4,869 openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.90%±33.85230 openings
7 days
88.55%±7.604,570 openings
30 days
87.74%±7.364,869 openings
since tracking started
87.74%±7.364,869 openings
51.5%86.0%120.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h23085.90%±33.8−0.1σodds
7d4,57088.55%±7.60+0.2σodds
30d4,86987.74%±7.36+0.0σodds
All4,86987.74%±7.36+0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,880 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl1 in 22$62765.3%223221.81.01×
★ Survival Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 22$13413.9%235221.81.06×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 44$83.954.4%0110.90.00×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 22$65.166.8%210221.80.95×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 44$55.722.9%0110.90.00×
MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 22$19.862.1%223221.81.01×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 22$15.651.6%244221.81.10×
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 88$12.510.3%055.40.00×
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 88$6.470.2%055.40.00×
AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 88$6.090.2%055.40.00×
MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 66$5.890.2%073.90.00×
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 88$4.770.1%055.40.00×
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 88$4.100.1%055.50.00×
AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$4.020.1%073.90.00×
AWP | Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 88$3.810.1%055.40.00×
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 88$3.810.1%055.40.00×
AWP | Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 88$3.680.1%055.50.00×
MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$3.240.1%073.90.00×
MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 66$2.880.1%073.90.00×
AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$2.660.1%073.90.00×
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 66$2.510.1%073.90.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 88$2.190.1%055.40.00×
P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 44$1.710.1%0110.90.00×
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 88$1.530.0%055.40.00×
P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 44$1.510.1%0110.90.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 88$1.070.0%055.40.00×
Negev | Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 66$1.030.0%073.90.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 88$1.010.0%055.40.00×
Negev | Loudmouth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 66$0.990.0%073.90.00×
P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 44$0.970.1%0110.90.00×
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 66$0.960.0%073.90.00×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 110$0.900.0%044.40.00×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 44$0.890.0%0110.90.00×
P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 22$0.890.1%190221.80.86×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$0.830.0%073.90.00×
MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 22$0.810.1%197221.80.89×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 88$0.800.0%055.50.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 88$0.800.0%055.40.00×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$0.800.0%073.90.00×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 88$0.730.0%055.50.00×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$0.720.0%074.00.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 88$0.690.0%055.50.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 88$0.670.0%055.50.00×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 110$0.670.0%044.40.00×
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 88$0.570.0%055.40.00×
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 88$0.550.0%055.50.00×
MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 88$0.550.0%055.50.00×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 110$0.550.0%044.40.00×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 110$0.520.0%044.40.00×
P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 44$0.500.0%0110.90.00×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 110$0.490.0%044.40.00×
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 44$0.460.0%0110.90.00×
Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 22$0.200.0%231221.81.04×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/magma-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlBOT Bim$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlC1HŁΛ$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearlkocia CS2.ME$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlScofield_gda$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlPeanut$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$50.49$64012.67x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$50.07$62812.55x
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$50.07$62812.55x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink????Tysiak™$49.87$19.860.40x
UMP-45 | Warm Bloodedweapon · blueShow DLL$49.87$0.680.01x
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaicweapon · pinkShow DLL$49.87$6.960.14x
UMP-45 | Warm Bloodedweapon · blue$49.87$0.680.01x
P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)weapon · blue$49.87$0.890.02x
M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violet$49.87$0.780.02x
USP-S | Ticket to Hellweapon · violetRomper$49.87$1.150.02x
UMP-45 | Warm Bloodedweapon · blue$49.87$0.680.01x
AWP | Dualityweapon · pink$49.87$4.350.09x
MAC-10 | Heatweapon · violet$49.87$4.000.08x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$49.8787.49%53
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$48.8387.50%53
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$49.8787.49%53
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$48.8387.50%53
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$48.9187.51%53
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$49.1187.50%53
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$49.2387.49%53
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$49.3387.50%53
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$49.2387.49%53
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$49.2087.50%53
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$49.1787.49%53
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$49.2087.50%53
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$48.9587.51%53
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$49.1787.49%53
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$48.5387.50%53
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$50.0787.51%53
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$49.8287.49%53
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$50.0787.51%53
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$50.4987.50%53
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$50.0787.51%53
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$50.0687.50%53
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.9%legendary 4.5%sunny 4.5%covert 9.1%pink 12.5%classified 4.5%Classified 1.1%Mythical 6.1%#8847ff 12.5%restricted 14.0%Restricted 1.1%violet 2.7%Rare 5.5%mil spec 0.9%#4b69ff 4.5%blue 14.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%best hit $640 (12.67x)