MARROW
A case on Casehug (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$12.00
Advertised RTP
88.07%
EV $10.57 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.20%
47.3K openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/marrow, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.07%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $12.00 | 88.07% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $12.00 | 88.10% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.00 | 87.84% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $12.00 | 87.84% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $12.00 | 87.85% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $12.00 | 87.71% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $12.00 | 87.88% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $12.00 | 88.00% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $12.00 | 87.92% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $12.00 | 87.70% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.00 | 87.72% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $12.00 | 87.95% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $12.00 | 87.89% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 1.8%gold 0.1%red 0.4%epic 0.0%sunny 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.9%classified 11.5%violet 13.8%pink 28.2%blue 43.4%best hit $1,632 (136.0x)