MIŚ BIM

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$1.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.31 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.52%

29.6K openings, odds method

Variance

5.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.12%±8.093,400 openings

7 days

86.75%±3.0325.4K openings

30 days

86.52%±2.8229.6K openings

since tracking started

86.52%±2.8229.6K openings

74.5%83.3%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,400	83.12%±8.09	−1.0σ	odds
7d	25.4K	86.75%±3.03	−0.3σ	odds
30d	29.6K	86.52%±2.82	−0.5σ	odds
All	29.6K	86.52%±2.82	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$348	0.8%	1	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14,286	$268	1.4%	2	2.1	0.96×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100,000	$122	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$67.44	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$57.05	0.6%	0	4.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$54.34	0.5%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 12,500	$53.88	0.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$52.36	0.4%	0	3.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 20,000	$42.09	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 14,286	$40.79	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$38.10	0.3%	0	3.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$35.89	0.5%	0	5.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$33.26	0.4%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 16,667	$32.20	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,111	$12.19	0.8%	25	26.7	0.94×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 990	$8.86	0.7%	0	30.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 694	$6.78	0.7%	0	42.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 565	$5.84	0.8%	0	52.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 223	$5.51	1.9%	0	133.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$4.61	2.3%	0	190.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$4.24	2.4%	0	224.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 154	$4.21	2.1%	0	192.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 141	$4.02	2.2%	0	210.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 151	$3.97	2.0%	0	197.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 137	$3.96	2.2%	0	217.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 242	$3.79	1.2%	0	122.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$3.76	2.1%	0	219.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 144	$3.64	1.9%	0	206.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$3.52	5.2%	0	575.6	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 60	$3.27	4.1%	0	493.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$3.04	2.2%	0	285.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 69	$2.56	2.8%	0	430.4	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$2.48	5.5%	0	857.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 43	$2.43	4.3%	0	686.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 28	$1.93	5.2%	0	1046.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$1.93	5.2%	0	1046.3	0.00×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 16	$1.65	7.9%	0	1862.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.63	4.3%	0	1020.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.45	2.6%	0	688.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$1.42	2.7%	0	743.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.39	2.7%	0	749.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$1.39	2.6%	0	725.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$1.33	2.9%	0	846.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$1.29	2.8%	0	842.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$1.24	2.9%	0	911.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 220	$1.16	0.4%	0	135.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 403	$1.07	0.2%	0	73.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 336	$1.01	0.2%	0	88.5	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 2,778	$0.89	0.0%	0	10.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$0.86	1.1%	500	475.8	1.05×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,941	$0.81	0.0%	0	10.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 231	$0.80	0.3%	0	128.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 231	$0.80	0.3%	0	128.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$0.73	0.3%	0	148.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$0.69	0.3%	0	148.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$0.69	0.3%	0	148.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 191	$0.67	0.3%	0	155.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 345	$0.24	0.1%	0	86.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 157	$0.17	0.1%	0	188.8	0.00×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 181	$0.14	0.1%	0	163.9	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 72	$0.09	0.1%	0	412.0	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$0.06	0.1%	0	787.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$0.06	0.1%	0	788.1	0.00×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$0.06	0.1%	0	635.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$0.06	0.1%	0	634.9	0.00×
XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 35	$0.05	0.1%	0	849.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	10.2%	$0.03	0.2%	0	3028.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common	15.3%	$0.02	0.2%	4,803	4543.9	1.06×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/mis-bim, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertBot Wege$1.50$362241.5x5d

★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$1.50$298198.5x5d

★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$1.50$266177.3x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Elite Buildweapon · blue????????????????????????????????$1.50$2.131.42x1m

P2000 | Red Wingweapon · blue????????????????????????????????$1.50$0.080.05x2m

M4A4 | Evil Daimyoweapon · violet????????????????????????????????$1.50$3.772.51x2m

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet????????????????????????????????$1.50$0.860.57x2m

AK-47 | Elite Buildweapon · blue????????????????????????????????$1.50$2.131.42x2m

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violet????????????????????????????????$1.50$0.820.55x2m

Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common????????????????????????????????$1.50$0.020.01x2m

AK-47 | Slateweapon · violet????????????????????????????????$1.50$4.893.26x2m

M4A4 | Steel Workweapon · blueLight????????????????????????????????$1.50$0.040.03x2m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treatedweapon · pink????????????????????????????????$1.50$1.480.99x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.50	87.50%	68
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.50	87.17%	68
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.50	87.50%	68
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$1.50	87.17%	68
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$1.50	86.97%	68
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$1.50	86.89%	68
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.50	87.04%	68
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.50	86.80%	68
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$1.50	87.04%	68
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$1.50	86.80%	68
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.50	87.09%	68
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$1.50	87.69%	68
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$1.50	86.95%	68
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$1.50	87.69%	68
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$1.50	87.63%	68
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$1.50	87.69%	68
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$1.50	87.63%	68
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.50	87.49%	68
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$1.50	87.10%	68
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.50	86.93%	68
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$1.50	87.51%	68
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$1.50	87.62%	68
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$1.50	87.70%	68
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$1.50	87.37%	68

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%rare 0.0%pink 11.0%restricted 11.6%Mythical 5.4%classified 3.5%milspec 3.4%#d32ee6 1.7%Rare 4.3%blue 6.2%mil spec 3.5%Legendary 6.3%violet 9.7%blueLight 0.6%#4b69ff 7.1%Uncommon 10.2%Common 15.3%best hit $362 (241.5x)