MOONFALL
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.88 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.28%
75.3K openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/moonfall, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 88.16% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $1.00 | 88.95% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 0.7%Classified 0.1%blue 6.0%Common 1.8%#d32ce6 2.2%blueLight 2.2%restricted 0.6%gray 25.7%violet 24.3%grey 1.7%Uncommon 4.9%common 5.1%Industrial 5.1%milspec 6.3%high 6.6%mil spec 6.6%best hit $355 (355.2x)