MOONFALL JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$19.38
Advertised RTP
87.51%
EV $16.96 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.38%
6,680 openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,822 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/moonfall-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $19.38 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $20.68 | 87.48% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $20.78 | 88.52% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.3%#8847ff 3.4%Covert 0.9%Ancient 0.9%red 0.9%classified 5.7%pink 6.9%Classified 1.1%blue 10.3%Common 3.4%#d32ce6 3.4%blueLight 3.4%restricted 1.7%gray 15.5%violet 15.5%grey 1.7%Uncommon 3.4%common 3.4%Industrial 3.4%milspec 3.4%high 3.4%mil spec 3.4%best hit —