NEON FLORA
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$0.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.22 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.83%
265K openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.35% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.09% – 85.57%, 265,272 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 266K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/neon-flora, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.25 | 87.11% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.25 | 88.00% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.25 | 88.00% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.25 | 88.65% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.25 | 87.20% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.25 | 88.40% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $0.25 | 87.88% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $0.25 | 84.32% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.25 | 84.90% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.25 | 87.19% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.25 | 86.72% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.25 | 88.01% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.25 | 87.87% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $0.25 | 88.01% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.25 | 86.44% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.25 | 87.25% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%Mythical 2.9%violet 7.0%restricted 0.5%blue 64.4%industrial 11.6%milspec 7.0%blueLight 6.7%best hit $77.35 (309.4x)