NEON FLORA JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$4.62
Advertised RTP
87.43%
EV $4.04 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.92%
70.9K openings, odds method
Variance
10.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.50% – 87.34%, 70,884 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/neon-flora-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.62 | 87.43% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.68 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.62 | 87.44% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.53 | 87.58% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.60 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.78 | 87.45% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.75 | 87.52% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $4.48 | 87.46% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $4.44 | 87.49% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.76 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.72 | 87.53% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $4.83 | 87.48% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.82 | 87.47% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.83 | 87.43% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 4.5%classified 2.3%pink 6.8%Mythical 10.2%violet 11.4%restricted 1.1%blue 45.5%industrial 9.1%milspec 4.5%blueLight 4.5%best hit —