NIGHTMARE
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$11.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $9.62 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.77%
15.3K openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.79% – 86.75%, 15,348 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/nightmare, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $11.00 | 87.19% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $11.00 | 87.65% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $11.00 | 87.81% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $11.00 | 87.73% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $11.00 | 87.58% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $11.00 | 87.26% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $11.00 | 87.00% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $11.00 | 87.18% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $11.00 | 87.75% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.00 | 87.53% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $11.00 | 87.85% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.00 | 87.58% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $11.00 | 87.36% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $11.00 | 87.66% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $11.00 | 87.78% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%sunny 0.1%classified 13.5%Extraordinary 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%Ancient 6.5%Legendary 20.9%pink 20.7%blue 37.7%best hit $887 (80.64x)