NIGHTMARE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$173.08
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $151.44 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.93%
460 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 497 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/nightmare-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $173 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $175 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $176 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $176 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $177 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $175 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $177 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $177 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $179 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $178 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $180 | 87.50% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 28.6%sunny 9.5%classified 14.3%Extraordinary 4.8%extraordinary 4.8%Ancient 4.8%Legendary 9.5%pink 9.5%blue 14.3%best hit $898 (5.01x)