NITRO V1 JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$85.86
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $75.13 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.34%
1,963 openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,970 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/nitro-v1-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $85.86 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $86.06 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $86.79 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $86.64 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $87.11 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $85.24 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $84.96 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $84.73 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $81.78 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $84.57 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $84.22 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $84.57 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $84.22 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $85.13 | 87.50% | 49 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $83.05 | 87.50% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.6%sunny 5.6%red 9.3%#eb4b4b 1.9%#d32ce6 2.8%classified 4.2%Classified 2.8%pink 5.6%restricted 8.3%Legendary 1.4%Mythical 13.6%uncommon 6.9%violet 26.7%#8847ff 5.6%best hit $1,138 (13.11x)