NITRO V2

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $5.25 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.67%

10.8K openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.13%±5.851,384 openings

7 days

87.69%±2.339,266 openings

30 days

87.67%±2.1610.8K openings

since tracking started

87.67%±2.1610.8K openings

80.5%87.0%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,384	87.13%±5.85	−0.2σ	odds
7d	9,266	87.69%±2.33	−0.0σ	odds
30d	10.8K	87.67%±2.16	−0.0σ	odds
All	10.8K	87.67%±2.16	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 4,348	$150	0.7%	2	2.5	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$146	0.7%	4	2.6	1.54×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 10,000	$114	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 7,692	$97.17	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 7,143	$91.57	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$75.96	0.3%	0	2.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$74.10	0.6%	4	5.0	0.80×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$71.74	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$65.16	0.4%	0	3.1	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$54.96	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$53.92	0.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$51.70	0.6%	11	7.1	1.54×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,448	$37.36	0.2%	0	3.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,125	$35.60	0.2%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,703	$33.08	0.2%	0	4.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$23.72	0.2%	0	4.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 129	$21.70	3.2%	0	83.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 114	$21.04	3.5%	0	94.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 113	$20.90	3.5%	0	95.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 110	$20.03	3.5%	0	98.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$19.97	3.5%	0	98.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$13.83	9.6%	398	396.0	1.01×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$13.22	2.8%	0	120.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 275	$12.78	0.9%	0	39.3	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 63	$11.05	3.4%	0	172.9	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$10.71	3.5%	0	184.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 73	$9.32	2.4%	0	149.3	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$8.73	2.2%	0	143.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 175	$7.97	0.9%	0	61.9	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 113	$7.34	1.2%	0	95.9	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 106	$7.10	1.3%	0	102.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 153	$6.78	0.8%	0	70.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 45	$6.74	2.9%	0	241.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 146	$6.73	0.9%	0	74.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 96	$6.69	1.3%	0	112.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 70	$6.64	1.8%	0	154.6	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 55	$6.22	2.2%	0	198.4	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$6.07	2.0%	0	185.0	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 136	$6.07	0.9%	0	79.9	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 126	$6.03	0.9%	0	85.7	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 32	$5.17	3.1%	0	336.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$5.12	4.3%	0	479.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 22	$5.10	4.3%	0	483.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$4.99	3.8%	0	432.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 24	$4.90	3.9%	0	448.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$4.80	0.9%	0	106.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 97	$4.67	0.9%	0	111.4	0.00×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$4.66	1.4%	0	170.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 122	$4.61	0.7%	0	88.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$4.45	0.6%	0	80.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$4.33	0.6%	0	77.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$4.21	0.6%	0	84.9	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 141	$4.21	0.6%	0	76.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 118	$4.02	0.6%	0	91.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 116	$3.96	0.7%	0	93.6	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 119	$3.92	0.6%	0	91.1	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$3.73	0.6%	0	89.1	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 106	$3.66	0.7%	0	101.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 114	$3.58	0.6%	0	95.2	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 61	$3.56	1.1%	0	176.1	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 111	$3.53	0.6%	0	97.3	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$3.49	0.6%	0	103.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$3.44	0.6%	0	106.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 151	$1.35	0.2%	0	71.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 215	$1.32	0.1%	0	50.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 222	$1.15	0.1%	0	48.8	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$0.61	0.2%	0	173.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 74	$0.58	0.1%	0	145.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$0.55	0.3%	0	300.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.52	0.3%	0	329.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$0.50	0.3%	0	350.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.43	0.2%	0	303.1	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.42	0.2%	0	314.7	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.41	0.2%	0	327.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.32	0.2%	0	377.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$0.32	0.2%	0	377.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$0.29	0.2%	0	442.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/nitro-v2, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pink$6.00$5.230.87x1m

AWP | Green Energyweapon · pink$6.00$5.500.92x1m

M4A1-S | Nitroweapon · violettivson$6.00$0.580.10x1m

Glock-18 | Snack Attackweapon · pink$6.00$20.513.42x2m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Loveweapon · pink$6.00$4.440.74x2m

AWP | Green Energyweapon · pink$6.00$5.500.92x2m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Loveweapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$6.00$4.440.74x2m

Glock-18 | Vogueweapon · pink$6.00$5.320.89x3m

USP-S | Tropical Breezeweapon · blue$6.00$0.370.06x3m

Glock-18 | Snack Attackweapon · pink$6.00$20.513.42x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$6.00	87.50%	77
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	77
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$6.00	87.72%	77
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$6.00	87.67%	77
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$6.00	88.05%	77
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$6.00	87.82%	77
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$6.00	87.29%	77
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$6.00	87.85%	77
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$6.00	87.44%	77
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$6.00	87.85%	77
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.00	87.85%	77
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.00	87.52%	77
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$6.00	87.53%	77
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$6.00	87.62%	77
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$6.00	87.52%	77
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	87.62%	77
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$6.00	88.04%	77
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$6.00	87.89%	77
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$6.00	87.42%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert 0.3%Ancient 0.1%red 0.0%classified 13.6%pink 25.1%Legendary 10.0%Classified 6.6%#d32ce6 2.5%rare 0.9%uncommon 2.2%#d32ee6 5.2%restricted 10.2%#4b69ff 8.0%violet 10.3%Rare 1.3%blue 3.5%best hit —