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NITRO V2 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$36.72
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $32.13 from 77 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.83%
2,037 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
74.94%±14.70251 openings
7 days
82.36%±5.651,740 openings
30 days
80.83%±5.232,037 openings
since tracking started
80.83%±5.232,037 openings
59.5%75.0%90.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.51% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.61% – 86.06%, 2,037 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h25174.94%±14.7−1.7σodds
7d1,74082.36%±5.65−1.8σodds
30d2,03780.83%±5.23−2.5σodds
All2,03780.83%±5.23−2.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,050 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 26$15818.9%6878.80.86×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 26$14717.6%6478.80.81×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 11 in 78$1154.6%026.30.00×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 11 in 78$98.263.9%026.30.00×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 11 in 78$87.553.5%026.30.00×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 26$79.099.5%8078.81.01×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 52$76.154.6%039.40.00×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 78$71.102.8%026.30.00×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 52$66.254.0%039.40.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 26$55.916.7%7878.80.99×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 78$54.222.2%026.30.00×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 78$49.952.0%026.30.00×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 78$37.421.5%026.30.00×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient1 in 78$34.261.4%026.30.00×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 78$32.561.3%026.30.00×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 78$24.081.0%026.30.00×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 78$20.780.8%026.30.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 78$20.720.8%026.30.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 78$20.050.8%026.30.00×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 78$20.000.8%026.30.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 78$19.980.8%026.30.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 130$13.720.3%015.80.00×
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 26$13.611.6%8278.81.04×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 78$12.700.5%026.30.00×
AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 78$11.100.4%026.30.00×
AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 78$10.690.4%026.30.00×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 78$9.330.4%026.30.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 52$8.310.5%039.40.00×
AWP | Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 78$7.990.3%026.30.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 104$7.600.2%019.70.00×
AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 78$7.280.3%026.30.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 104$6.910.2%019.70.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 130$6.810.2%015.80.00×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 78$6.780.3%026.30.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 78$6.620.3%026.30.00×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 78$6.440.3%026.30.00×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 52$6.390.4%039.40.00×
P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 52$6.220.4%039.40.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 104$6.070.2%019.70.00×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 104$6.070.2%019.70.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 104$5.370.2%019.70.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 104$5.090.2%019.70.00×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 104$5.060.2%019.70.00×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 104$4.880.1%019.70.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 78$4.740.2%026.30.00×
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 52$4.700.3%039.40.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 130$4.560.1%015.80.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 130$4.530.1%015.80.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 130$4.510.1%015.80.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 78$4.420.2%026.30.00×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 104$4.330.1%019.70.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 104$4.240.1%019.70.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 104$4.060.1%019.70.00×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 104$4.040.1%019.70.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 104$4.010.1%019.70.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 104$3.990.1%019.70.00×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 104$3.900.1%019.70.00×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 104$3.870.1%019.70.00×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 104$3.710.1%019.70.00×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 104$3.600.1%019.70.00×
AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 78$3.490.1%026.30.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 104$3.490.1%019.70.00×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 104$3.380.1%019.70.00×
Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 130$1.320.0%015.80.00×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 104$1.320.0%019.70.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$1.210.0%015.80.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 130$0.730.0%015.80.00×
Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 130$0.640.0%015.80.00×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.570.0%019.70.00×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.550.0%019.70.00×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.520.0%019.70.00×
Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 130$0.430.0%015.80.00×
Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 130$0.420.0%015.80.00×
Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 130$0.410.0%015.80.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.380.0%015.80.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.310.0%015.80.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.290.0%015.80.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/nitro-v2-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Snack Attackweapon · pinkziomek$36.72$20.250.55x
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 1)weapon · red · Phase 1TidinTidin roadto19k CS2.ME$36.72$1002.73x
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Loveweapon · pinkziomek$36.72$4.580.12x
AWP | Green Energyweapon · pinkTidinTidin roadto19k CS2.ME$36.72$6.250.17x
P2000 | Wicked Sickweapon · pink$36.72$4.230.12x
Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet$36.72$0.640.02x
M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkjose$36.72$5.730.16x
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$36.72$13.610.37x
M4A1-S | Player Twoweapon · red$36.72$71.201.94x
MAC-10 | Disco Techweapon · classifiedRuJiRu$36.72$7.520.20x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$36.7287.50%77
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$36.3987.50%77
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$36.0687.51%77
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$36.3987.50%77
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$36.2587.51%77
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$36.2287.49%77
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$37.0987.49%77
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$37.1387.50%77
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$36.8987.49%77
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$37.3487.50%77
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC$36.8987.49%77
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$37.2187.50%77
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$37.3887.49%77
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$37.0887.49%77
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$37.6087.51%77
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC$37.0887.49%77
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$37.6087.51%77
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC$37.3387.49%77
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$37.6087.51%77
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$37.3387.49%77
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 3.8%covert 23.1%Ancient 2.6%red 1.3%classified 15.4%pink 22.6%Legendary 8.7%Classified 3.2%rare 1.3%#d32ce6 2.6%#d32ee6 2.1%uncommon 1.9%restricted 4.6%#4b69ff 2.3%Rare 0.8%violet 3.1%blue 0.8%best hit —