ORGANIC

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$0.30

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.26 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.17%

101K openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.68%±2.9012.5K openings

7 days

84.42%±1.1485.1K openings

30 days

84.17%±1.05101K openings

since tracking started

84.17%±1.05101K openings

81.0%84.8%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.12% – 85.22%, 100,881 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12.5K	84.68%±2.90	−2.0σ	odds
7d	85.1K	84.42%±1.14	−4.4σ	odds
30d	101K	84.17%±1.05	−5.1σ	odds
All	101K	84.17%±1.05	−5.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$65.16	0.7%	0	3.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 14,286	$17.54	0.5%	2	7.1	0.28×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$7.79	0.7%	0	25.3	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 5,000	$6.74	0.5%	0	20.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$6.50	0.6%	0	25.3	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$6.28	0.2%	0	10.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,000	$6.03	1.1%	44	50.6	0.87×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,500	$4.43	0.7%	0	40.5	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,000	$2.66	0.5%	0	50.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,266	$2.60	0.8%	0	79.9	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$2.51	0.5%	0	50.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 251	$1.15	1.7%	0	402.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 164	$0.96	2.2%	0	615.1	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 645	$0.95	0.6%	0	156.8	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 149	$0.83	2.1%	0	680.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 149	$0.83	2.1%	0	680.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 131	$0.64	1.9%	0	772.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 64	$0.58	3.5%	0	1582.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 58	$0.57	3.7%	0	1745.1	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$0.46	3.8%	0	2217.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$0.46	3.8%	0	2217.6	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 65	$0.43	2.5%	0	1544.8	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 121	$0.41	1.3%	0	836.7	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.35	2.9%	0	2164.0	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 39	$0.32	3.1%	0	2587.9	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 34	$0.31	3.5%	0	2970.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 27	$0.29	4.1%	0	3711.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$0.29	9.1%	0	8361.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$0.23	4.4%	0	5134.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · blue	13.9%	$0.20	10.6%	14,970	14094.6	1.06×
Sawed-Off \| Parched (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	15.6%	$0.15	8.9%	16,244	15813.4	1.03×
SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	16.1%	$0.14	8.6%	15,945	16256.5	0.98×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	16.1%	$0.14	8.6%	15,381	16256.5	0.95×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/organic, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blueskayro022$0.30$16.9756.57x3d

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · bluePAŞAALAN - AHMO$0.30$16.9756.57x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrmweapon · blue-Nik00- CS2.ME$0.30$0.280.93xnow

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrmweapon · blue-Nik00- CS2.ME$0.30$0.280.93x6s

SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue-Nik00- CS2.ME$0.30$0.140.47x9s

SG 553 | Dragon Techweapon · violetBAJKY taha VAJPKY$0.30$0.551.83x13s

SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueArasaka$0.30$0.140.47x16s

SG 553 | Danger Closeweapon · blue-Nik00- CS2.ME$0.30$0.321.07x16s

CZ75-Auto | Circaetusweapon · blueArasaka$0.30$0.331.10x21s

SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueUxakoi$0.30$0.140.47x23s

StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · blueLowkey$0.30$0.200.67x23s

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-Sweapon · violet-Nik00- CS2.ME$0.30$0.772.57x27s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.30	87.50%	33
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$0.30	87.80%	33
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$0.30	87.94%	33
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$0.30	88.16%	33
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$0.30	88.88%	33
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$0.30	88.18%	33
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$0.30	87.93%	33
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$0.30	84.54%	33
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$0.30	85.86%	33
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.30	86.59%	33
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$0.30	85.75%	33
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$0.30	85.87%	33
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.30	86.07%	33
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$0.30	86.25%	33
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$0.30	87.24%	33
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$0.30	87.68%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%blue 57.9%restricted 0.2%uncommon 0.0%Mythical 4.4%pink 0.1%#8847ff 1.1%violet 4.6%Rare 13.2%Mil Spec 2.9%grey 15.6%best hit $16.97 (56.57x)