ORGANIC JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$7.02
Advertised RTP
87.51%
EV $6.14 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.45%
21.8K openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/organic-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $7.02 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $7.05 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $7.02 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $7.14 | 87.53% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $7.36 | 87.45% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $7.14 | 87.53% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $6.89 | 87.48% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $7.36 | 87.45% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $7.37 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $7.22 | 87.49% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $7.42 | 87.50% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $7.24 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $7.37 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $7.35 | 87.54% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $7.30 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $7.35 | 87.54% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.30 | 87.51% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $7.39 | 87.52% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.32 | 87.52% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $7.18 | 87.52% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $7.29 | 87.49% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.24 | 87.47% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $7.29 | 87.49% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.6%blue 31.9%restricted 9.3%Mythical 9.3%uncommon 2.8%pink 8.3%#8847ff 6.5%violet 8.3%Rare 9.7%Mil Spec 2.8%grey 5.6%best hit —