PAINKILLER

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$5.75

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $5.03 from 76 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.97%

11.1K openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.11%±9.001,209 openings

7 days

85.64%±3.309,501 openings

30 days

84.97%±3.0611.1K openings

since tracking started

84.97%±3.0611.1K openings

67.5%78.5%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,209	77.11%±9.00	−2.3σ	odds
7d	9,501	85.64%±3.30	−1.1σ	odds
30d	11.1K	84.97%±3.06	−1.7σ	odds
All	11.1K	84.97%±3.06	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values76 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 50,000	$583	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 33,333	$531	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 5,000	$365	1.4%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Battle-Scarred)gloves · epic	1 in 20,000	$351	0.3%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$298	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20,000	$196	0.2%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$129	0.2%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$82.38	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$80.83	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$80.33	0.5%	0	3.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$73.54	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$72.97	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$71.74	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$58.63	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,545	$55.66	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$54.96	0.3%	0	2.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$54.68	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$53.92	0.3%	0	2.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$51.70	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 3,846	$50.97	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$48.87	0.3%	0	3.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$36.22	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 781	$28.23	0.7%	16	14.3	1.12×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,030	$24.37	0.2%	0	3.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$24.18	0.2%	0	3.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$23.75	0.2%	0	4.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,273	$23.20	0.2%	0	4.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,273	$23.01	0.2%	0	4.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$19.69	4.9%	0	140.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$18.13	5.3%	0	165.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$15.68	8.5%	0	303.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$13.66	9.2%	0	378.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 42	$8.90	4.2%	0	264.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$8.80	5.6%	0	356.4	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 43	$8.73	4.0%	0	259.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$8.51	2.1%	0	138.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$8.40	2.1%	0	142.2	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$7.49	1.6%	0	122.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 74	$7.25	2.0%	0	151.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 67	$6.92	2.0%	0	166.4	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 71	$6.74	1.9%	0	158.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$6.73	1.2%	0	99.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$6.47	2.7%	0	230.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$6.30	2.2%	0	200.7	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 60	$6.07	2.0%	0	186.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 51	$5.88	2.3%	0	219.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 29	$5.56	3.8%	0	386.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$4.99	2.5%	0	284.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 38	$4.90	2.6%	0	295.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$4.77	5.6%	0	665.7	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$4.70	4.1%	0	488.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 112	$4.45	0.8%	0	99.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 70	$4.43	1.3%	0	159.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 126	$4.35	0.7%	0	88.8	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 794	$4.30	0.1%	0	14.1	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 71	$3.04	0.9%	0	157.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 65	$2.89	0.9%	0	170.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 244	$1.90	0.2%	0	45.7	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 258	$1.79	0.1%	0	43.4	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 280	$1.67	0.1%	0	39.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 170	$1.64	0.2%	0	65.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 82	$0.96	0.2%	0	136.0	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 76	$0.83	0.2%	0	147.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.76	0.3%	0	224.3	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$0.63	0.2%	0	189.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$0.61	0.3%	0	318.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$0.61	0.3%	0	280.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 39	$0.60	0.3%	0	288.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.57	0.3%	0	313.0	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$0.52	0.3%	0	312.5	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.50	0.3%	0	332.7	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.50	0.3%	0	332.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.49	0.4%	0	452.4	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.44	0.3%	0	336.0	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.41	0.3%	0	376.3	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.41	0.3%	0	376.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/painkiller, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · gold$5.75$46380.59x1d

★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendaryDONFANTASTICKYPESS$5.75$39568.63x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$5.75$7.001.22x7m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$5.75$6.651.16x7m

Zeus x27 | Tosaiweapon · violet$5.75$0.590.10x7m

Tec-9 | Fuel Injectorweapon · pinkmahar$5.75$14.562.53x7m

Dual Berettas | Dezastreweapon · violet$5.75$3.260.57x11m

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$5.75$6.651.16x11m

P90 | Neoqueenweapon · violetkarim0skins.army$5.75$0.490.09x11m

Tec-9 | Fuel Injectorweapon · pinkKaprix skins.army$5.75$14.562.53x13m

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$5.75$7.001.22x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$5.75	87.50%	76
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$5.75	87.52%	76
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$5.75	87.50%	76
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$5.75	87.52%	76
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$5.75	87.38%	76
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$5.75	87.48%	76
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$5.75	87.38%	76
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$5.75	87.47%	76
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$5.75	87.48%	76
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$5.75	88.02%	76
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$5.75	87.33%	76
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$5.75	87.52%	76
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$5.75	87.61%	76
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.75	87.40%	76
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.75	87.68%	76
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.75	87.40%	76
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$5.75	87.74%	76
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$5.75	87.50%	76
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$5.75	87.74%	76
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.75	87.50%	76
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$5.75	87.48%	76
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$5.75	87.84%	76
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$5.75	87.75%	76

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 0.2%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%rare 1.4%classified 10.3%#d32ee6 2.7%pink 26.7%Legendary 8.7%#d32ce6 1.5%uncommon 1.8%Classified 2.0%violet 35.8%Mythical 0.5%#8847ff 4.2%restricted 4.2%best hit $463 (80.59x)