PAINKILLER JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$70.26

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $61.48 from 76 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.25%

641 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75 openings · below min

7 days

84.86%±15.27513 openings

30 days

86.25%±13.66641 openings

since tracking started

86.25%±13.66641 openings

38.5%78.8%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	75	78.64%±39.7	—	odds
7d	513	84.86%±15.3	−0.3σ	odds
30d	641	86.25%±13.7	−0.2σ	odds
All	641	86.25%±13.7	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values76 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 645 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 69	$583	13.7%	0	9.3	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 69	$531	12.5%	0	9.3	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 23	$365	25.8%	24	28.0	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Battle-Scarred)gloves · epic	1 in 69	$351	8.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$298	4.2%	0	5.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 69	$196	4.6%	0	9.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$129	1.8%	0	5.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$82.38	1.9%	0	9.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$80.83	1.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 69	$80.33	1.9%	0	9.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$73.54	1.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$72.97	1.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$71.74	1.7%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 69	$58.63	1.4%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 69	$55.66	1.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$54.96	1.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$54.68	1.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$53.92	1.3%	0	9.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$51.70	1.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 69	$50.97	1.2%	0	9.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$48.87	1.2%	0	9.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$36.22	0.6%	0	7.0	0.00×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$28.23	2.0%	26	28.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 92	$24.37	0.4%	0	7.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$24.18	0.4%	0	7.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$23.75	0.4%	0	7.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$23.20	0.4%	0	7.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$23.01	0.4%	0	7.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$19.69	0.3%	0	7.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$18.13	0.3%	0	7.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$15.68	0.6%	0	14.0	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$13.66	0.5%	0	14.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$8.90	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$8.80	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$8.73	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$8.51	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$8.40	0.2%	0	9.4	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$7.49	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 69	$7.25	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 69	$6.92	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 69	$6.74	0.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 92	$6.73	0.1%	0	7.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$6.47	0.2%	0	14.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$6.30	0.1%	0	9.4	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$6.07	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 69	$5.88	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$5.56	0.1%	0	9.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$4.99	0.1%	0	7.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 92	$4.90	0.1%	0	7.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$4.77	0.2%	0	14.0	0.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$4.70	0.1%	0	9.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 92	$4.45	0.1%	0	7.0	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$4.43	0.1%	0	9.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 69	$4.35	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 115	$4.30	0.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 69	$3.04	0.1%	0	9.3	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 69	$2.89	0.1%	0	9.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 115	$1.90	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 115	$1.79	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 115	$1.67	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$1.64	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 115	$0.96	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.83	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.76	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 115	$0.63	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.61	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 115	$0.61	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 115	$0.60	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.57	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.52	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.50	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.50	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.49	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.44	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.41	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$0.41	0.0%	0	5.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/painkiller-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · gold$73.24$5387.35x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · gold$73.64$5277.15x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · goldlarro$74.22$5277.10x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · gold$73.64$5267.15x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · goldJohnny SKINS$73.64$5267.15x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · gold$73.64$5267.15x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · goldm00rtal$73.64$5267.15x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Occultgloves · gold$74.61$5247.03x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Vaporwaveweapon · red$71.01$54.360.77x1h

MAC-10 | Cat Fightweapon · violet$71.01$1.530.02x1h

Zeus x27 | Tosaiweapon · violet$71.01$0.870.01x1h

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkParówek37$71.01$26.090.37x1h

P90 | Neoqueenweapon · violet????Tysiak™$71.01$0.680.01x1h

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pinkremoremeroCS2.ME$71.01$6.900.10x1h

AK-47 | Asiimovweapon · redremoremeroCS2.ME$71.01$51.450.72x1h

AK-47 | Cartelweapon · classifiedremoremeroCS2.ME$71.01$21.690.31x1h

Glock-18 | Vogueweapon · pinkremoremeroCS2.ME$71.01$5.130.07x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$70.26	87.50%	76
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$70.90	87.50%	76
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$70.28	87.49%	76
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$71.76	87.50%	76
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$72.17	87.50%	76
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$73.91	87.50%	76
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$73.56	88.32%	76
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$74.28	87.50%	76
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$74.25	87.50%	76
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$73.56	87.50%	76
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$74.61	87.50%	76
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$74.22	87.50%	76
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$73.64	87.50%	76
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$73.64	87.50%	76
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$73.64	87.50%	76
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$73.24	87.50%	76

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 5.8%sunny 1.4%epic 1.4%covert 14.5%Ancient 1.4%red 2.9%rare 4.3%classified 15.6%#d32ee6 2.2%pink 17.8%Legendary 6.5%#d32ce6 1.4%uncommon 2.3%Classified 1.4%violet 14.8%Mythical 1.7%#8847ff 2.6%restricted 1.7%best hit $538 (7.35x)