PLANT B

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$36.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $31.50 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.15%

3,715 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.10%±9.55497 openings

7 days

90.16%±3.943,204 openings

30 days

89.15%±3.633,715 openings

since tracking started

89.15%±3.633,715 openings

78.0%88.3%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	497	88.10%±9.55	+0.2σ	odds
7d	3,204	90.16%±3.94	+1.3σ	odds
30d	3,715	89.15%±3.63	+0.8σ	odds
All	3,715	89.15%±3.63	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,719 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,396	0.9%	3	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$879	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$470	0.9%	2	2.2	0.90×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$359	0.8%	3	2.6	1.15×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,111	$291	0.8%	2	3.3	0.60×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 833	$213	0.8%	2	4.5	0.45×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 667	$170	0.8%	5	5.6	0.90×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,429	$156	0.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$156	0.8%	5	6.3	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$128	8.7%	14	79.2	0.18×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 84	$127	4.8%	0	44.3	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 44	$119	8.7%	124	85.2	1.46×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$73.54	7.2%	179	114.2	1.57×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 714	$59.76	0.3%	0	5.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$57.05	7.2%	175	146.9	1.19×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$55.72	7.1%	195	150.2	1.30×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.4%	$44.35	14.7%	285	387.1	0.74×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 17	$37.36	6.9%	0	216.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 23	$33.08	4.5%	0	160.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 128	$25.34	0.6%	0	29.0	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	11.0%	$15.47	5.4%	434	410.2	1.06×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.5%	$13.95	5.1%	405	427.7	0.95×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	12.1%	$12.26	4.7%	480	450.4	1.07×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$10.97	0.9%	0	94.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violet	13.3%	$9.67	4.1%	471	495.0	0.95×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$6.95	1.1%	0	177.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$6.03	1.1%	0	216.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/plant-b, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedProstě Cába$36.00$1,44240.05x5d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedKarolak SKINS skins.army$36.00$1,41539.30x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$36.00$1,41539.30x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violetKaprix skins.army$36.00$9.670.27x59s

AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedKaprix skins.army$36.00$44.351.23x1m

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertKaprix skins.army$36.00$73.542.04x1m

R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$36.00$13.950.39x4m

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$36.00$73.542.04x4m

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertSalik skins.army$36.00$73.542.04x4m

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$36.00$15.470.43x5m

R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil specSalik skins.army$36.00$13.950.39x5m

MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violet$36.00$9.670.27x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$36.00	87.50%	27
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$36.00	87.00%	27
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$36.00	87.61%	27
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$36.00	87.53%	27
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$36.00	88.05%	27
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$36.00	87.77%	27
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$36.00	88.05%	27
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$36.00	87.77%	27
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$36.00	87.77%	27
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$36.00	87.76%	27
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$36.00	87.36%	27
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$36.00	87.67%	27
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$36.00	87.64%	27
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$36.00	87.70%	27
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$36.00	87.61%	27
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$36.00	87.37%	27
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$36.00	87.38%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 21.5%covert 13.6%extraordinary 1.5%gold 2.3%pink 13.3%Ancient 5.8%red 4.3%Legendary 0.8%mil spec 11.5%blue 12.1%violet 13.3%best hit $1,442 (40.05x)