POMPA TEAM

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$35.50

Advertised RTP

87.05%

EV $30.90 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.85%

4,474 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.10%±12.31569 openings

7 days

89.18%±4.793,754 openings

30 days

88.85%±4.384,474 openings

since tracking started

88.85%±4.384,474 openings

83.0%96.0%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	569	96.10%±12.3	+1.4σ	odds
7d	3,754	89.18%±4.79	+0.9σ	odds
30d	4,474	88.85%±4.38	+0.8σ	odds
All	4,474	88.85%±4.38	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,479 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$2,171	0.9%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$1,592	1.4%	3	1.2	2.48×
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$1,158	1.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,389	$797	1.9%	4	3.2	1.24×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$345	0.2%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$298	0.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 513	$219	1.4%	2	8.7	0.23×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$193	0.5%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 535	$166	1.0%	0	8.4	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$159	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$155	0.5%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 935	$147	0.5%	0	4.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$129	0.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 752	$104	0.4%	0	6.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 336	$97.28	0.9%	0	13.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$89.88	2.9%	0	44.7	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$83.95	2.8%	0	45.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$80.83	2.7%	0	46.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$73.54	3.6%	0	67.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$72.97	3.5%	0	66.3	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$68.04	4.3%	0	87.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$60.80	9.0%	0	205.5	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$58.58	2.2%	0	52.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$55.72	4.7%	0	116.7	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$54.01	4.1%	0	105.7	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$44.35	5.5%	0	172.2	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 57	$41.03	2.3%	0	78.2	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 50	$37.36	2.4%	0	89.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$36.38	1.9%	0	72.0	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 46	$36.31	2.6%	0	97.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$33.54	2.0%	0	83.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$31.20	2.0%	0	90.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 44	$28.60	2.1%	0	101.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	22.8%	$24.24	17.9%	0	1020.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$23.38	1.7%	0	97.9	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	20.4%	$8.74	5.8%	0	914.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	10.7%	$5.66	2.0%	0	481.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$3.23	0.7%	0	281.1	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/pompa-team, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHyeXX$35.50$2,21262.30x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$35.50$1,62445.74x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$35.50$1,59244.85x7h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$35.50$1,59244.85x13h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$35.50$81923.07x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$35.50$81122.86x6d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$35.50$79722.45x19h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$35.50$75821.35x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Water Elementalweapon · pink$35.50$26.990.76x26m

USP-S | The Traitorweapon · red$35.50$41.451.17x26m

AWP | Wildfireweapon · redMosQuit$35.50$60.411.70x26m

SG 553 | Cyrexweapon · pink$35.50$10.160.29x26m

Glock-18 | Water Elementalweapon · pink$35.50$26.990.76x26m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted_Mefju_$35.50$4.760.13x26m

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01weapon · violet$35.50$34.490.97x27m

SG 553 | Cyrexweapon · pink$35.50$10.160.29x27m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$35.50	87.05%	38
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$35.50	87.11%	38
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$35.50	86.97%	38
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$35.50	87.05%	38
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$35.50	87.08%	38
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$35.50	86.53%	38
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$35.50	87.05%	38
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$35.50	87.08%	38
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$35.50	87.05%	38
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$35.50	86.53%	38
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$35.50	86.66%	38
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$35.50	87.05%	38
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$35.50	86.91%	38
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$35.50	87.02%	38
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$35.50	87.23%	38
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$35.50	87.02%	38
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$35.50	87.04%	38
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$35.50	87.04%	38
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$35.50	86.61%	38
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$35.50	87.10%	38
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$35.50	87.55%	38
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$35.50	87.01%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.0%classified 11.7%rare 0.1%restricted 5.8%red 3.7%violet 2.3%Legendary 22.8%pink 22.6%Mythical 17.0%best hit $2,212 (62.30x)