POMPA TEAM JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$495.23
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $433.33 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.24%
181 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
32 openings · below min
7 days
92.07%±19.64170 openings
30 days
92.24%±19.02181 openings
since tracking started
92.24%±19.02181 openings
27.0%73.0%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3273.12%±45.3—odds
7d17092.07%±19.6+0.4σodds
30d18192.24%±19.0+0.5σodds
All18192.24%±19.0+0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 16$2,21231.9%1412.11.16×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 16$1,61623.3%1512.11.24×
★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 16$1,15516.7%912.10.75×
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 16$79711.5%1312.11.08×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 32$3452.5%06.00.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 80$3000.9%02.40.00×
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 16$2193.2%1212.10.99×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 48$1930.9%04.00.00×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 32$1691.2%06.00.00×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 48$1560.7%04.00.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 64$1470.5%03.00.00×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 48$1350.6%04.00.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 80$1320.4%02.40.00×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 32$1040.8%06.00.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 80$97.280.3%02.40.00×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 32$89.730.6%06.00.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 80$82.120.2%02.40.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 64$76.800.3%03.00.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 80$72.970.2%02.40.00×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 80$71.120.2%02.40.00×
AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 32$69.870.5%06.00.00×
USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 64$60.240.2%03.00.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 64$55.280.2%03.00.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 64$54.010.2%03.00.00×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 32$52.260.4%06.00.00×
AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 32$44.420.3%06.00.00×
USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 64$42.340.2%03.00.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 80$36.310.1%02.40.00×
USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 64$35.220.1%03.00.00×
USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 64$34.180.1%03.00.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 80$33.540.1%02.40.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 80$31.200.1%02.40.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 80$30.680.1%02.40.00×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 32$24.970.2%06.00.00×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 32$23.380.2%06.00.00×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 32$9.380.1%06.00.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 32$5.690.0%06.00.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 32$3.000.0%06.00.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/pompa-team-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$49587.50%38
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$49687.50%38
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$49687.50%38
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$49387.50%38
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$49187.50%38
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$49487.50%38
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC$49587.50%38
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$49887.50%38
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$49787.50%38
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 40.6%classified 28.1%rare 6.3%restricted 5.0%red 3.1%violet 1.3%Legendary 3.1%pink 6.3%Mythical 6.3%best hit $2,212 (4.46x)