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RESTRICTED

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.75 from 93 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.52%
15.5K openings, odds method
Variance
22.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82.70%±20.712,005 openings
7 days
84.73%±7.9513.8K openings
30 days
84.52%±7.5015.5K openings
since tracking started
84.52%±7.5015.5K openings
61.5%82.8%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,00582.70%±20.7−0.5σodds
7d13.8K84.73%±7.95−0.8σodds
30d15.5K84.52%±7.50−0.8σodds
All15.5K84.52%±7.50−0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values93 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$1,7072.0%00.3—
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$5660.6%10.3—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$5640.6%00.3—
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$5410.6%00.3—
P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$4660.5%00.3—
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$3790.4%00.3—
Nova | Baroque Orange (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$1390.4%00.8—
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 16,667$1060.4%10.9—
Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 16,667$96.050.3%10.9—
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12,500$72.250.3%31.22.42×
Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$63.480.1%00.6—
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 100,000$47.900.0%00.2—
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$36.480.1%00.6—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 14,286$36.380.1%01.10.00×
FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25,000$35.810.1%00.6—
AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$34.590.3%22.30.86×
XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 6,250$32.420.3%02.50.00×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 100,000$31.490.0%00.2—
Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$30.390.2%01.90.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 9,091$28.600.2%01.70.00×
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$27.190.3%22.90.68×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 20,000$25.710.1%00.8—
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 7,692$15.770.1%02.00.00×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$14.930.1%02.50.00×
Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50,000$13.140.0%00.3—
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 33,333$12.510.0%00.5—
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 4,348$12.450.2%03.60.00×
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 3,125$11.810.2%05.00.00×
FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 3,030$11.460.2%05.10.00×
Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 9,091$10.950.1%01.70.00×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 3,125$9.830.2%05.00.00×
AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$9.670.1%01.70.00×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 33,333$9.670.0%00.5—
FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 361$7.461.2%042.90.00×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 302$7.371.4%051.30.00×
Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 408$7.101.0%038.00.00×
Nova | Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 322$6.931.2%048.20.00×
SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 629$6.870.6%024.60.00×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 134$6.552.8%0115.50.00×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 1,149$5.910.3%013.50.00×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 352$5.750.9%044.00.00×
Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 264$5.711.2%058.70.00×
Nova | Sobek's Bite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 217$5.681.5%071.40.00×
AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 258$5.571.2%060.00.00×
Nova | Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 247$5.511.3%062.80.00×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 49$4.855.6%0314.50.00×
AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 60$4.384.2%0257.90.00×
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 658$4.300.4%023.60.00×
FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 35$3.786.2%0444.00.00×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 355$3.170.5%043.70.00×
Negev | dev_texture (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 488$3.110.4%031.80.00×
SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 45$3.003.8%0341.60.00×
SG 553 | Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 30$2.915.6%0520.10.00×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 68$2.782.3%0228.90.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 162$2.630.9%095.80.00×
Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 71$2.562.1%0217.90.00×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 13$2.179.4%01173.20.00×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 118$1.910.9%0131.30.00×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 73$1.671.3%0213.40.00×
P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 164$1.670.6%094.50.00×
P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 54$1.651.8%0288.40.00×
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 202$1.640.5%076.90.00×
Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 87$1.631.1%0178.20.00×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 89$1.581.0%0173.40.00×
Galil AR | Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 72$1.421.1%0216.20.00×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 65$1.391.2%0238.70.00×
Galil AR | Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 65$1.331.2%0237.00.00×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 69$1.321.1%0223.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 59$1.301.3%0262.10.00×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 67$1.291.1%0230.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 58$1.291.3%0265.00.00×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 45$1.191.5%0342.80.00×
P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 29$1.072.1%0528.60.00×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 102$1.010.6%0152.70.00×
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 17$0.923.1%947925.91.02×
Negev | dev_texture (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 105$0.800.4%0147.70.00×
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 69$0.760.6%0225.30.00×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 60$0.690.7%0260.40.00×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 56$0.660.7%0277.10.00×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 56$0.660.7%0277.10.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 53$0.660.7%0292.90.00×
P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 42$0.630.9%0369.80.00×
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 51$0.610.7%0306.60.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 44$0.580.8%0350.90.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 40$0.540.8%0387.80.00×
MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 37$0.490.8%0416.40.00×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 50$0.470.5%0310.70.00×
Negev | dev_texture (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 48$0.460.5%0320.30.00×
Negev | dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 45$0.440.6%0341.00.00×
Negev | dev_texture (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 45$0.440.6%0341.00.00×
P90 | Neoqueen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 23$0.411.0%0674.50.00×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 32$0.340.6%0488.80.00×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 28$0.310.6%0558.20.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/restricted, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.00$549274.4x
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violetLeewix$2.00$10451.93x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P90 | Neoqueenweapon · violetNRForceTomi$2.00$0.590.30x
MAC-10 | Cat Fightweapon · violet$2.00$0.750.38x
P250 | Vino Primoweapon · violet$2.00$1.270.64x
Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violet$2.00$1.330.67x
SG 553 | Pulseweapon · violetTwikziu ツ$2.00$3.051.53x
Glock-18 | Weaselweapon · violetNRForceTomi$2.00$1.480.74x
M4A1-S | Liquidationweapon · restricted$2.00$1.860.93x
SG 553 | Pulseweapon · violet$2.00$3.051.53x
SG 553 | Pulseweapon · violet$2.00$3.051.53x
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalTwikziu ツ$2.00$0.920.46x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$2.0087.50%93
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$2.0087.45%93
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$2.0087.75%93
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$2.0087.69%93
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$2.0087.81%93
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC$2.0088.44%93
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$2.0088.36%93
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$2.0087.99%93
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$2.0087.80%93
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.0087.28%93
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$2.0088.07%93
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$2.0087.14%93
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC$2.0087.76%93
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC$2.0087.42%93
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC$2.0087.78%93
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$2.0087.81%93
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 33.6%violet 42.6%Mythical 11.3%#8847ff 6.9%Restricted 3.4%uncommon 2.3%best hit $549 (274.4x)