RETRO

A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$11.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $10.06 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.27%

23.8K openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.58%±7.583,628 openings

7 days

85.38%±3.0823K openings

30 days

85.27%±3.0223.8K openings

since tracking started

85.27%±3.0223.8K openings

72.5%80.8%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,628	80.58%±7.58	−1.8σ	odds
7d	23K	85.38%±3.08	−1.5σ	odds
30d	23.8K	85.27%±3.02	−1.6σ	odds
All	23.8K	85.27%±3.02	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$1,345	1.5%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,348	$580	1.3%	8	5.5	1.46×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$551	1.4%	4	6.0	0.67×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 3,571	$481	1.3%	10	6.7	1.50×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 2,381	$316	1.3%	15	10.0	1.50×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,273	$303	1.3%	8	10.5	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$156	1.3%	22	20.3	1.09×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$137	0.6%	0	11.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$122	0.7%	0	13.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$113	0.3%	0	6.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 1,471	$92.38	0.6%	0	16.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,220	$84.20	0.7%	0	19.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$83.95	0.3%	0	9.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 515	$67.44	1.3%	41	46.2	0.89×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,205	$63.82	0.5%	0	19.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$55.23	0.5%	0	21.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$54.89	0.6%	0	24.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$54.85	0.5%	0	21.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$42.72	5.6%	0	313.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 75	$40.36	5.4%	0	319.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$36.49	3.0%	0	195.8	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 699	$31.82	0.5%	0	34.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$31.55	7.3%	0	553.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$24.27	10.1%	0	997.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$17.82	13.4%	0	1803.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$17.12	8.5%	0	1188.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$15.68	5.8%	0	887.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$15.48	4.0%	0	616.1	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 123	$15.36	1.2%	0	193.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$13.66	6.7%	0	1169.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 206	$10.52	0.5%	0	115.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 234	$8.86	0.4%	0	101.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 196	$7.65	0.4%	0	121.7	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 139	$7.34	0.5%	0	171.3	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$7.25	1.7%	0	562.7	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 133	$7.10	0.5%	0	179.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$6.32	0.6%	0	238.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$6.19	0.6%	0	245.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$6.10	0.6%	0	250.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$4.88	0.5%	0	228.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 99	$4.80	0.5%	0	239.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$4.24	0.5%	0	284.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 85	$4.22	0.5%	0	279.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$4.16	0.5%	0	285.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$4.01	0.5%	0	308.1	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 51	$3.56	0.7%	0	471.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 452	$3.08	0.1%	0	52.7	0.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New)weapon · grey	1 in 52	$1.27	0.2%	0	461.5	0.00×
XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 28	$1.06	0.4%	0	842.7	0.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey	1 in 37	$1.01	0.3%	0	635.9	0.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 34	$0.95	0.3%	0	692.6	0.00×
XM1014 \| Charter (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 24	$0.95	0.4%	0	982.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$0.46	0.1%	0	750.5	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.4%	$0.46	0.5%	2,567	2489.0	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 30	$0.44	0.1%	0	798.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.41	0.2%	0	883.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.9%	$0.41	0.4%	2,628	2606.2	1.01×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/retro, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$11.50$1,365118.7x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · coverttriple$11.50$1,363118.5x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertdanonn CS2.ME$11.50$61653.61x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$11.50$61653.61x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertETER =GW_#039;A case hug etc!!!$11.50$61653.61x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$11.50$60052.19x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertmichał syn jacka$11.50$60052.19x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertruhatorCS2.MEskins.army$11.50$60052.19x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · coverttivson$11.50$60052.19x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pink$11.50$19.861.73x1m

MP9 | Food Chainweapon · pinkクレツィク CS2.ME$11.50$13.441.17x1m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$11.50$0.460.04x9m

Tec-9 | Brotherweapon · violetSoBoL BuK$11.50$0.490.04x9m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$11.50$0.460.04x14m

AUG | Surveillanceweapon · grey$11.50$1.050.09x14m

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violetKacperkuuu skins.army CS2.ME$11.50$0.410.04x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$11.50	87.50%	57
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$11.50	87.45%	57
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$11.50	87.77%	57
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$11.50	87.83%	57
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$11.50	87.79%	57
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$11.50	87.91%	57
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$11.50	87.52%	57
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$11.50	87.91%	57
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$11.50	87.68%	57
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$11.50	87.90%	57
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$11.50	87.97%	57
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$11.50	87.48%	57
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$11.50	87.19%	57
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$11.50	87.31%	57
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$11.50	87.37%	57
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$11.50	87.76%	57
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$11.50	87.81%	57
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$11.50	87.76%	57
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$11.50	87.81%	57

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.6%#ffd700 0.0%epic 0.0%Covert 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.1%red 1.3%classified 36.4%rare 0.9%#d32ce6 3.5%pink 3.4%Legendary 2.7%violet 28.5%grey 4.6%Common 7.7%gray 2.9%#8847ff 3.4%best hit $1,365 (118.7x)