RITUAL
A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$0.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.44 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.18%
125K openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
57.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
42.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.96% – 84.39%, 124,815 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 33,333 | $115 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.27× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 14,286 | $57.05 | 0.9% | 4 | 8.8 | 0.46× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $43.39 | 1.0% | 8 | 12.5 | 0.64× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 3,333 | $16.80 | 1.2% | 27 | 37.5 | 0.72× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $11.45 | 1.3% | 46 | 62.6 | 0.74× |
| MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 500 | $7.02 | 3.2% | 201 | 250.3 | 0.80× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 143 | $4.56 | 7.3% | 750 | 876.2 | 0.86× |
| Sticker | High Heatsticker · blue | 56.3% | $0.64 | 82.4% | 69,141 | 70492.9 | 0.98× |
| Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested)weapon · grey | 42.7% | $0.02 | 2.0% | 54,987 | 53420.4 | 1.03× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/ritual, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.50 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.50 | 87.70% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.50 | 88.69% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $0.50 | 88.06% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $0.50 | 88.05% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $0.50 | 88.27% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.50 | 88.02% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $0.50 | 87.79% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $0.50 | 90.86% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.50 | 90.85% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.50 | 88.40% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.50 | 88.00% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $0.50 | 87.67% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.50 | 87.73% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $0.50 | 87.86% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $0.50 | 88.07% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.50 | 88.46% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 0.9%blue 56.3%grey 42.7%best hit $115 (230.4x)