RITUAL JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$32.53
Advertised RTP
87.49%
EV $28.46 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.26%
3,298 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,309 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 11.1% | $115 | 45.0% | 349 | 367.7 | 0.95× |
| Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 11.1% | $57.05 | 22.3% | 366 | 367.7 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 11.1% | $43.39 | 16.9% | 354 | 367.7 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 11.1% | $16.80 | 6.6% | 392 | 367.7 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 11.1% | $11.45 | 4.5% | 378 | 367.7 | 1.03× |
| MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 11.1% | $7.02 | 2.7% | 355 | 367.7 | 0.97× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 11.1% | $4.56 | 1.8% | 378 | 367.7 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | High Heatsticker · blue | 11.1% | $0.64 | 0.2% | 400 | 367.7 | 1.09× |
| Sawed-Off | Runoff (Field-Tested)weapon · grey | 11.1% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 337 | 367.7 | 0.92× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/ritual-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $32.53 | 87.49% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $32.06 | 87.49% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $31.49 | 87.49% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $30.23 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $31.88 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $30.23 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $30.31 | 87.51% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $31.15 | 87.51% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $30.95 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $31.79 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $32.10 | 86.66% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $31.79 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $32.05 | 87.49% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $32.42 | 87.49% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $31.87 | 87.49% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.3%classified 22.2%pink 22.2%blue 11.1%grey 11.1%best hit —