ROYAL
A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1,000.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $875.03 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.29%
2,060 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,060 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/royal, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1,000 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,000 | 87.77% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1,000 | 87.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,000 | 87.41% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $1,000 | 87.30% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,000 | 87.59% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1,000 | 87.57% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1,000 | 87.59% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $1,000 | 87.34% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $1,000 | 87.60% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1,000 | 87.19% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1,000 | 87.60% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,000 | 87.57% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1,000 | 87.42% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1,000 | 87.74% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,000 | 87.59% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $1,000 | 87.33% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1,000 | 87.48% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.2%covert 64.8%extraordinary 12.2%legendary 5.6%epic 9.3%rare 7.9%best hit $9,684 (9.68x)