ROYAL JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2,296.29
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $2,078.14 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.75%
760 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 763 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/royal-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2,296 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2,297 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2,302 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2,324 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2,323 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2,321 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2,306 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $2,321 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $2,314 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2,306 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $2,317 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2,317 | 90.20% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2,305 | 90.50% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2,307 | 90.50% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 5.9%covert 58.8%extraordinary 14.7%legendary 5.9%epic 8.8%rare 5.9%best hit $9,684 (4.17x)