RUBY HUNT

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$14.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $12.69 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.37%

49K openings, odds method

Variance

47.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 114

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

98.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.96%±15.697,562 openings

7 days

88.13%±6.7641.9K openings

30 days

87.37%±6.2549K openings

since tracking started

87.37%±6.2549K openings

65.5%82.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7,562	81.96%±15.7	−0.7σ	odds
7d	41.9K	88.13%±6.76	+0.1σ	odds
30d	49K	87.37%±6.25	−0.1σ	odds
All	49K	87.37%±6.25	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33,333	$9,792	2.3%	2	1.5	1.35×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$2,858	1.6%	1	3.5	0.29×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$2,233	1.8%	7	4.9	1.42×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$1,836	5.8%	17	19.7	0.86×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby	1 in 1,667	$1,364	6.4%	30	29.6	1.01×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,250	$872	5.5%	50	39.4	1.27×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,111	$866	6.1%	37	44.4	0.83×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 625	$696	8.8%	82	78.9	1.04×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 556	$595	8.4%	113	88.8	1.27×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$429	8.5%	153	123.3	1.24×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$331	13.1%	223	246.5	0.90×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$11.52	3.9%	0	2095.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$7.37	3.1%	0	2603.5	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 11	$6.09	4.4%	0	4546.2	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	15.1%	$4.88	5.8%	5,794	7430.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$4.85	3.5%	0	4487.0	0.00×
Sticker \| Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	16.0%	$4.01	5.1%	7,083	7879.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	18.8%	$2.33	3.5%	11,093	9274.8	1.20×
Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet	20.9%	$1.58	2.6%	14,981	10310.3	1.45×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/ruby-hunt, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.50$9,792675.3x3d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.50$9,792675.3x5d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby$14.50$2,867197.7x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.50$2,272156.7x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.50$2,239154.4x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby???????????????????????? ×͜×$14.50$2,239154.4x4d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyCyberRulz$14.50$2,237154.3x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.50$2,234154.0x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.50$2,234154.0x16h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyHor3x)$14.50$2,234154.0x16h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet$14.50$1.580.11x5m

Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$14.50$4.010.28x5m

Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violetAdolf Blinker SKINS$14.50$1.580.11x5m

Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$14.50$4.010.28x5m

AWP | Dualityweapon · pink$14.50$7.800.54x5m

AWP | Dualityweapon · pinkAdolf Blinker SKINS$14.50$7.800.54x5m

Sticker | Taste Buddy (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$14.50$4.010.28x5m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue$14.50$2.330.16x5m

Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violetAdolf Blinker SKINS$14.50$1.580.11x5m

AWP | Dualityweapon · pink$14.50$7.800.54x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$14.50	87.50%	19
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$14.50	87.83%	19
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$14.50	87.45%	19
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$14.50	87.77%	19
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$14.50	88.07%	19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$14.50	87.36%	19
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$14.50	88.07%	19
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$14.50	87.36%	19
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$14.50	87.99%	19
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$14.50	87.57%	19
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$14.50	87.59%	19
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$14.50	87.57%	19
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$14.50	87.34%	19
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$14.50	88.08%	19
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$14.50	88.13%	19
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$14.50	87.42%	19
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$14.50	87.58%	19
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$14.50	87.67%	19
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$14.50	87.66%	19
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$14.50	87.47%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%legendary 0.3%gold 0.1%pink 4.3%restricted 5.3%Classified 9.2%gray 15.1%violet 30.0%#8847ff 16.0%blue 18.8%best hit $9,792 (675.3x)