SHINOBI
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.37 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.85%
45.8K openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/shinobi, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $5.00 | 87.26% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $5.00 | 87.84% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 0.1%#8847ff 1.2%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%pink 14.9%violet 20.1%restricted 1.3%Legendary 8.3%uncommon 1.4%gray 5.3%blueLight 3.0%light blue 3.1%Industrial Grade 6.3%Rare 2.7%blue 24.6%#d32ce6 7.6%best hit $797 (159.4x)