SHINOBI JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$87.54
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $76.60 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.37%
3,386 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.61% – 86.13%, 3,386 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,403 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/shinobi-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $87.54 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $88.10 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $87.54 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $88.10 | 87.50% | 45 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $86.97 | 88.50% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 3.7%gold 9.3%covert 5.6%#8847ff 4.9%Ancient 1.9%red 1.9%pink 16.1%violet 19.8%restricted 1.2%Legendary 4.9%uncommon 1.2%gray 3.7%blueLight 1.9%light blue 1.9%Industrial Grade 3.7%Rare 1.9%blue 13.0%#d32ce6 3.7%best hit $804 (9.25x)