SPIRIT CALL

A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$2.50

Advertised RTP

87.37%

EV $2.18 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.18%

156K openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

85.96%±0.78122K openings

30 days

86.18%±0.69156K openings

since tracking started

86.18%±0.69156K openings

84.5%86.3%88.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.49% – 86.87%, 156,290 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	122K	85.96%±0.78	−3.7σ	odds
30d	156K	86.18%±0.69	−3.5σ	odds
All	156K	86.18%±0.69	−3.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 157K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50,000	$428	0.4%	0	3.1	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33,333	$236	0.3%	6	4.7	1.28×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$167	0.4%	6	7.8	0.77×
★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 20,000	$91.67	0.2%	0	7.8	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 20,000	$79.21	0.2%	0	7.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 33,333	$78.90	0.1%	0	4.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$56.95	0.3%	0	15.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$54.88	0.3%	0	15.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$51.31	0.2%	0	15.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$41.20	0.2%	0	15.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 14,286	$40.68	0.1%	0	11.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 10,000	$31.09	0.1%	0	15.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$28.03	0.1%	0	15.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$23.59	0.2%	0	31.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$22.32	0.1%	0	15.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$17.38	0.1%	0	15.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 714	$13.22	0.8%	0	219.3	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 588	$10.91	0.8%	0	266.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 526	$10.77	0.9%	0	297.6	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 526	$10.23	0.9%	0	297.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$7.27	9.9%	4,353	4636.0	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$5.11	4.3%	2,212	2866.2	0.77×
G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 52	$4.85	4.3%	2,443	3022.8	0.81×
PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 47	$4.45	4.3%	2,628	3304.7	0.80×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$4.42	4.3%	2,725	3320.4	0.82×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$3.81	4.3%	3,696	3852.9	0.96×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 19	$3.29	7.8%	3,163	8144.3	0.39×
Sticker \| First Bloodsticker · blue	1 in 18	$3.09	7.8%	13,167	8676.9	1.52×
G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 16	$2.74	7.9%	11,963	9804.5	1.22×
Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 21	$2.43	5.2%	7,452	7329.9	1.02×
Sticker \| Winding Scorch (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6	1 in 19	$1.91	4.5%	8,111	8081.7	1.00×
Sticker \| Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet	1 in 18	$1.65	4.1%	8,610	8504.6	1.01×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 16	$1.24	3.5%	9,168	9585.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 16	$1.24	3.5%	9,535	9585.3	0.99×
Sticker \| Flexsticker · blue	1 in 16	$1.22	3.4%	10,002	9585.3	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$1.18	3.3%	9,628	9694.9	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 15	$0.98	3.0%	10,829	10446.7	1.04×
Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common	1 in 15	$0.92	2.9%	11,506	10775.6	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.83	2.7%	11,483	11198.5	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 12	$0.58	2.2%	12,777	12921.3	0.99×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/spirit-call, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarybestja$2.50$24296.94x3d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryFilip Fan Pikersa CS2.ME$2.50$24296.94x4d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$2.50$24296.94x4d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarykr3ks1u$2.50$24296.94x4d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$2.50$22991.74x2d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$2.50$22891.24x8d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$2.50$18373.24x3d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$2.50$18373.24x4d

Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedADI$2.50$18373.24x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | First Bloodsticker · blue$2.50$3.091.24x1d

G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight$2.50$2.741.10x1d

Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet$2.50$1.650.66x1d

G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLightTrelemoreleskins.army$2.50$2.741.10x1d

Sticker | Cedar Creek (Holo)sticker · violet$2.50$1.650.66x1d

PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray$2.50$4.451.78x1d

SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray$2.50$0.580.23x1d

G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLightTrelemoreleskins.army$2.50$2.741.10x1d

UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$2.50$1.180.47x1d

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet$2.50$1.240.50x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$2.50	87.37%	40
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$2.50	87.22%	40
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$2.50	87.68%	40
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$2.50	87.48%	40
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$2.50	87.46%	40
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.50	87.04%	40
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.50	87.18%	40
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$2.50	87.40%	40
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.50	88.18%	40
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$2.50	87.18%	40
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$2.50	87.33%	40
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$2.50	87.36%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 0.0%rare 0.0%Immortal 0.0%red 0.0%uncommon 0.0%pink 5.1%classified 0.2%blue 19.3%violet 26.7%gray 18.4%blueLight 11.5%#d32ce6 5.2%grey 6.7%common 6.9%best hit $242 (96.94x)