STATTRAK
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$4.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.72 from 55 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.05%
10.3K openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/stattrak, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $4.25 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $4.25 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.25 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.25 | 87.20% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.25 | 87.56% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $4.25 | 87.62% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $4.25 | 87.52% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.25 | 87.34% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.25 | 87.11% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $4.25 | 87.39% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.25 | 87.11% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.25 | 87.79% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $4.25 | 87.32% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.25 | 87.22% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $4.25 | 87.73% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $4.25 | 88.05% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.25 | 87.31% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $4.25 | 87.42% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $4.25 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $4.25 | 87.39% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.25 | 87.86% | 55 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.25 | 87.39% | 55 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.1%covert 0.5%Covert 0.2%classified 5.4%pink 20.0%Classified 4.8%restricted 3.8%violet 42.4%#d32ce6 5.6%Mythical 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 5.6%blue 0.9%#8847ff 0.8%milspec 9.5%best hit —