STATTRAK JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$40.28
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $35.25 from 55 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.99%
1,067 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,197 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/stattrak-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $40.28 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $40.54 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $40.28 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $40.70 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $38.89 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $39.23 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $39.59 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $39.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $38.99 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $39.33 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $38.99 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $39.05 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $38.99 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $39.05 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $39.06 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $38.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $39.00 | 87.49% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $38.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $38.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $38.68 | 87.51% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $38.86 | 87.50% | 55 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $38.70 | 87.49% | 55 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 11.9%#eb4b4b 4.8%covert 19.0%Covert 7.1%classified 4.8%pink 10.3%Classified 2.4%violet 23.6%restricted 2.9%#d32ce6 1.6%Mythical 1.2%Mil Spec Grade 4.8%blue 2.4%#8847ff 1.0%milspec 2.4%best hit —