SUSHI MASTER

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$50.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $43.75 from 63 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.05%
2,924 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82.94%±14.46278 openings
7 days
89.71%±4.882,575 openings
30 days
88.05%±4.592,924 openings
since tracking started
88.05%±4.592,924 openings
68.0%83.0%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h27882.94%±14.5−0.6σodds
7d2,57589.71%±4.88+0.9σodds
30d2,92488.05%±4.59+0.2σodds
All2,92488.05%±4.59+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,944 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1,4080.3%20.3—
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$1,2070.3%10.3—
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 5,000$1,1540.5%10.6—
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 5,556$1,0860.4%00.5—
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 4,545$8790.4%10.6—
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 4,545$8720.4%10.6—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 4,167$7970.4%00.7—
AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$7450.3%10.6—
★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby1 in 3,704$6960.4%00.8—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$6100.3%10.6—
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby1 in 3,226$5950.4%00.9—
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 2,500$4710.4%01.20.00×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 2,326$4290.4%01.30.00×
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,961$3650.4%51.53.33×
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 1,923$3590.4%21.51.31×
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 1,786$3310.4%11.60.61×
★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 1,235$2290.4%12.40.42×
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 43$1709.0%6468.00.94×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 42$1669.0%6269.40.89×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 36$1227.9%8082.80.97×
★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 35$1197.9%14185.01.66×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 22$75.967.9%148133.31.11×
AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 14$68.0410.8%197204.20.96×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 12$57.0510.8%200243.50.82×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient19.8%$45.3720.5%0583.30.00×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 281$39.460.3%010.50.00×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 259$37.470.3%011.40.00×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 258$37.360.3%011.40.00×
AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 65$37.361.3%6745.01.49×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert1 in 256$37.190.3%011.50.00×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 264$35.860.3%011.20.00×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 214$31.490.3%013.70.00×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 194$29.590.3%015.20.00×
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 51$24.971.1%8557.31.48×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 629$15.920.1%04.70.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 463$14.540.1%06.40.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 375$12.780.1%07.90.00×
AWP | Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 388$11.520.1%07.60.00×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 31$10.970.8%9893.91.04×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 257$8.680.1%011.50.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 217$8.180.1%013.50.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 135$6.730.1%021.90.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 134$6.690.1%022.00.00×
AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 140$6.090.1%021.00.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 61$5.880.2%048.30.00×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 136$5.840.1%021.60.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 58$5.660.2%050.80.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 83$4.990.1%035.30.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 81$4.900.1%036.30.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 79$4.800.1%037.40.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 75$4.670.1%039.10.00×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 73$4.570.1%040.50.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 69$4.450.1%042.40.00×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 74$3.970.1%040.00.00×
AWP | Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 66$3.810.1%044.40.00×
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 66$3.810.1%044.40.00×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 67$3.760.1%043.60.00×
AWP | Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 63$3.680.1%046.90.00×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 61$3.520.1%048.50.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 24$3.230.3%0124.50.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 23$3.220.3%0126.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 33$2.510.2%089.50.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 29$2.330.2%0100.80.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/sushi-master, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$50.0087.50%63
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$50.0087.78%63
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$50.0087.38%63
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$50.0087.29%63
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$50.0087.56%63
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$50.0087.51%63
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$50.0087.77%63
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC$50.0087.68%63
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$50.0087.77%63
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$50.0087.70%63
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$50.0087.66%63
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$50.0087.66%63
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$50.0087.44%63
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$50.0087.66%63
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$50.0087.44%63
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$50.0087.62%63
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$50.0087.44%63
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC$50.0087.26%63
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$50.0087.62%63
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC$50.0087.64%63
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC$50.0087.28%63
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC$50.0087.64%63
3 Nov, 02:07 UTC$50.0087.28%63
3 Nov, 01:41 UTC$50.0087.60%63
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$50.0087.28%63
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 13.6%extraordinary 2.4%rare 0.0%legendary 0.1%classified 9.3%Ancient 24.5%gold 2.9%red 1.7%Covert 0.4%pink 13.8%Mythical 15.5%Legendary 4.0%restricted 4.0%violet 5.1%#d32ee6 2.0%Classified 0.7%best hit $1,408 (28.16x)