SUSHI MASTER JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$418.98
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $366.61 from 63 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.60%
133 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
2 openings · below min
7 days
80.80%±17.77122 openings
30 days
76.60%±17.03133 openings
since tracking started
76.60%±17.03133 openings
-0.5%71.3%143.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h27.44%±134.8—odds
7d12280.80%±17.8−0.7σodds
30d13376.60%±17.0−1.3σodds
All13376.60%±17.0−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 136 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 36$1,40810.7%43.81.06×
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 36$1,2079.1%23.80.53×
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 36$1,1548.7%53.81.32×
★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 36$1,0868.2%13.80.26×
★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 36$8796.7%53.81.32×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 36$8726.6%33.80.79×
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 36$7976.0%33.80.79×
AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 36$7455.6%23.80.53×
★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby1 in 36$6965.3%43.81.06×
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 36$6104.6%13.80.26×
★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby1 in 36$5954.5%13.80.26×
★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 36$4713.6%63.81.59×
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 36$4293.3%43.81.06×
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 36$3652.8%43.81.06×
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 36$3592.7%43.81.06×
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 36$3312.5%33.80.79×
★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 36$2291.7%23.80.53×
★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 36$1701.3%23.80.53×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 36$1661.3%63.81.59×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 36$1220.9%43.81.06×
★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 36$1190.9%53.81.32×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 36$75.960.6%13.80.26×
AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 36$68.040.5%23.80.53×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 36$57.050.4%43.81.06×
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 144$45.370.1%00.9—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 144$39.460.1%00.9—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 144$37.470.1%00.9—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 144$37.360.1%00.9—
AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 36$37.360.3%83.82.12×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert1 in 144$37.190.1%00.9—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 144$35.860.1%00.9—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 144$31.490.1%00.9—
AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 144$29.590.1%00.9—
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 36$24.970.2%33.80.79×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 144$15.920.0%00.9—
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 180$14.540.0%00.8—
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 180$12.780.0%00.8—
AWP | Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 180$11.520.0%00.8—
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 36$10.970.1%23.80.53×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 180$8.680.0%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 144$8.180.0%00.9—
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 180$6.730.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 180$6.690.0%00.8—
AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 180$6.090.0%00.8—
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 72$5.880.0%01.90.00×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 180$5.840.0%00.8—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 72$5.660.0%01.90.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 180$4.990.0%00.8—
Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 180$4.900.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 180$4.800.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 180$4.670.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 180$4.570.0%00.8—
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 180$4.450.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 180$3.970.0%00.8—
AWP | Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 180$3.810.0%00.8—
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 180$3.810.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 180$3.760.0%00.8—
AWP | Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 180$3.680.0%00.8—
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 180$3.520.0%00.8—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 72$3.230.0%01.90.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 72$3.220.0%01.90.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 144$2.510.0%00.9—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 144$2.330.0%00.9—
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/sushi-master-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$41987.50%63
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$42887.50%63
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$43187.50%63
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$43287.50%63
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$43087.50%63
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$42987.50%63
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$43287.50%63
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$44087.50%63
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$43487.50%63
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$44087.50%63
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 36.8%extraordinary 11.1%rare 2.8%legendary 5.6%classified 5.6%Ancient 6.9%gold 2.8%red 2.8%Covert 0.7%pink 9.4%Mythical 6.1%Legendary 2.8%restricted 2.2%violet 2.8%#d32ee6 1.1%Classified 0.6%best hit $1,455 (3.31x)