SWEET DEAL
A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$4.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.50 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.01%
13.3K openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
26.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 33,333 | $697 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 14,286 | $357 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1 | 1 in 10,000 | $240 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald | 1 in 10,000 | $234 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 10,000 | $159 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.26× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 5,000 | $150 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 185 | $43.39 | 6.7% | 81 | 71.7 | 1.13× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 35.6% | $4.33 | 44.1% | 4,474 | 4731.6 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 37.1% | $4.16 | 44.1% | 4,738 | 4925.4 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Boom Trail (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff | 26.7% | $0.15 | 1.1% | 3,976 | 3539.4 | 1.12× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/sweet-deal, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $4.00 | 87.26% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.34% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.00 | 87.36% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.52% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.48% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $4.00 | 87.54% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $4.00 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.00 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.00 | 87.33% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.37% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $4.00 | 87.52% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $4.00 | 87.61% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $4.00 | 87.25% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $4.00 | 87.25% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%covert 0.0%gold 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.5%pink 72.7%#8847ff 26.7%best hit $247 (61.65x)