SWEET DEAL JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$215.89
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $188.90 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.24%
379 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 435 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 10.0% | $697 | 36.9% | 38 | 43.5 | 0.87× |
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $357 | 18.9% | 48 | 43.5 | 1.10× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $240 | 12.7% | 45 | 43.5 | 1.03× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald | 10.0% | $234 | 12.4% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× |
| ★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 10.0% | $159 | 8.4% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 10.0% | $150 | 7.9% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 10.0% | $43.39 | 2.3% | 44 | 43.5 | 1.01× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $4.33 | 0.2% | 42 | 43.5 | 0.97× |
| P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 10.0% | $4.16 | 0.2% | 38 | 43.5 | 0.87× |
| Sticker | Boom Trail (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff | 10.0% | $0.15 | 0.0% | 54 | 43.5 | 1.24× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/sweet-deal-joker, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $216 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $216 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $216 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $219 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $220 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $217 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $219 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $217 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $223 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $222 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $221 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 22:28 UTC | $224 | 87.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 20.0%covert 10.0%gold 10.0%red 20.0%Ancient 10.0%pink 20.0%#8847ff 10.0%best hit $712 (3.18x)