SWEET TOOTH
A case on Casehug (KINDA RISKY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.87 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.67%
24.7K openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
69.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
31.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33,333 | $176 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 14,286 | $128 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 10,000 | $71.37 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $65.16 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,000 | $54.85 | 1.3% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.01× |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 10,000 | $44.56 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,500 | $8.51 | 0.4% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 111 | $4.45 | 4.6% | 169 | 222.4 | 0.76× |
| Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo)sticker · violet | 68.0% | $1.15 | 89.4% | 15,492 | 16804.2 | 0.92× |
| Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey | 31.0% | $0.02 | 0.7% | 9,027 | 7660.7 | 1.18× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/sweet-tooth, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1.00 | 87.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $1.00 | 82.60% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1.00 | 88.09% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1.00 | 87.26% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $1.00 | 87.31% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1.00 | 87.99% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $1.00 | 87.30% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $1.00 | 87.02% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 87.42% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $1.00 | 87.13% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1.00 | 86.54% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 84.65% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $1.00 | 86.73% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $1.00 | 87.05% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $1.00 | 87.10% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.9%violet 68.0%grey 31.0%best hit $172 (171.9x)