SWEET TOOTH JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$63.30
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $55.39 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.20%
731 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 825 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $176 | 31.7% | 84 | 82.5 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $128 | 23.2% | 89 | 82.5 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 10.0% | $71.37 | 12.9% | 79 | 82.5 | 0.96× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $65.16 | 11.8% | 89 | 82.5 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $54.85 | 9.9% | 74 | 82.5 | 0.90× |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 10.0% | $44.56 | 8.0% | 86 | 82.5 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.51 | 1.5% | 65 | 82.5 | 0.79× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $4.45 | 0.8% | 94 | 82.5 | 1.14× |
| Sticker | Rush 4x20 (Holo)sticker · violet | 10.0% | $1.15 | 0.2% | 90 | 82.5 | 1.09× |
| Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 75 | 82.5 | 0.91× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/sweet-tooth-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $63.30 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $66.24 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $66.18 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $67.15 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $67.13 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $66.85 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $67.13 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $66.85 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $67.56 | 87.49% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $66.85 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $65.61 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $67.82 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $67.64 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $67.04 | 87.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%red 20.0%classified 10.0%Legendary 10.0%violet 10.0%grey 10.0%best hit —