TAXI

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$6.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $5.69 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.87%

9,820 openings, odds method

Variance

4.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.51%±11.981,081 openings

7 days

85.89%±5.328,375 openings

30 days

85.87%±4.789,820 openings

since tracking started

85.87%±4.789,820 openings

75.0%87.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,081	87.51%±12.0	+0.0σ	odds
7d	8,375	85.89%±5.32	−0.6σ	odds
30d	9,820	85.87%±4.78	−0.7σ	odds
All	9,820	85.87%±4.78	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,839 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$720	1.3%	0	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 7,692	$546	1.2%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 3,704	$245	1.2%	1	2.7	0.38×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$200	1.2%	8	3.2	2.46×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$128	1.1%	9	5.0	1.79×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,562	$102	1.1%	15	6.3	2.38×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 990	$63.72	1.1%	14	9.9	1.41×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$58.55	1.1%	30	10.8	2.77×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$45.59	0.2%	0	2.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,389	$43.39	0.5%	0	7.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,205	$40.36	0.6%	0	8.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$22.44	18.4%	0	459.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.3%	$15.18	27.4%	0	1009.2	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$8.24	3.0%	0	205.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$8.17	2.2%	0	149.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$7.02	10.6%	813	847.0	0.96×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$6.92	3.6%	0	291.9	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$6.27	1.8%	0	161.2	0.00×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 103	$5.23	0.9%	0	95.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 21	$4.94	4.2%	500	472.8	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 331	$4.88	0.3%	0	29.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 549	$4.69	0.2%	0	17.9	0.00×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn)weapon · 4	1 in 79	$4.31	1.0%	0	125.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 49	$4.23	1.5%	0	199.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$4.19	1.5%	0	201.8	0.00×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 71	$4.02	1.0%	0	137.8	0.00×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$3.92	1.0%	0	142.8	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$3.81	3.6%	543	524.4	1.04×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 145	$1.81	0.2%	0	67.8	0.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New)weapon · grey	1 in 43	$1.27	0.5%	0	226.5	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 40	$1.07	0.5%	0	248.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 23	$1.04	0.8%	0	430.0	0.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey	1 in 32	$1.01	0.6%	0	312.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 21	$0.99	0.8%	0	460.7	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	1 in 35	$0.98	0.5%	0	280.6	0.00×
AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 29	$0.95	0.6%	0	340.0	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 31	$0.89	0.5%	0	321.1	0.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	10.9%	$0.64	1.2%	1,126	1070.4	1.05×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 32	$0.61	0.3%	0	310.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 32	$0.61	0.3%	0	310.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$0.58	0.3%	0	332.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/taxi, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold????????????????????????????$6.50$61895.09x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMajshin CS2.ME$6.50$3.810.59x5m

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue$6.50$0.640.10x9m

MP9 | Army Sheenweapon · greystara masarniczka$6.50$1.010.16x9m

CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashedweapon · gray$6.50$1.100.17x9m

AUG | Surveillanceweapon · grey$6.50$1.050.16x9m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$6.50$4.940.76x9m

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blueSoBoL BuK$6.50$0.640.10x9m

CZ75-Auto | Jungle Dashedweapon · gray$6.50$1.100.17x22m

MP9 | Army Sheenweapon · grey$6.50$1.010.16x22m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$6.50$7.021.08x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$6.50	87.50%	41
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$6.50	87.15%	41
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$6.50	88.14%	41
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$6.50	87.21%	41
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.50	87.97%	41
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$6.50	87.78%	41
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$6.50	87.25%	41
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$6.50	87.78%	41
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$6.50	87.25%	41
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$6.50	87.84%	41
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$6.50	87.86%	41
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.50	87.27%	41
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$6.50	87.80%	41
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.50	87.53%	41
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$6.50	87.53%	41
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$6.50	87.49%	41
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$6.50	87.44%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed4 1.3%covert 0.3%gold 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.2%classified 25.2%red 0.1%pink 15.4%#d32ee6 5.8%gray 6.3%blue 15.1%Classified 2.0%Legendary 1.4%grey 13.0%Consumer Grade 7.6%#4b69ff 6.3%best hit $618 (95.09x)