THE BOMB
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.19 from 57 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.20%
11.4K openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/the-bomb, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.50 | 86.78% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.50 | 86.82% | 57 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2.50 | 86.59% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.50 | 86.82% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.50 | 86.59% | 57 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.50 | 87.68% | 57 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.50 | 87.58% | 57 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $2.50 | 87.75% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.50 | 87.27% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.50 | 87.45% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.50 | 87.82% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.98% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.50 | 87.74% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $2.50 | 87.23% | 57 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $2.50 | 87.79% | 57 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.23% | 57 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%Ancient 0.0%classified 4.1%Mythical 0.1%restricted 9.0%Classified 1.8%pink 7.5%#d32ee6 1.0%Legendary 2.2%#8847ff 13.5%blue 21.8%violet 37.4%mil spec 1.3%best hit $156 (62.32x)