TIGER
A case on Casehug (HIGH RISK), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$3.80
Advertised RTP
87.02%
EV $3.31 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.12%
20.2K openings, odds method
Variance
29.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 602 | $357 | 17.9% | 29 | 33.6 | 0.86× |
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 980 | $295 | 9.1% | 24 | 20.7 | 1.16× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 893 | $284 | 9.6% | 12 | 22.7 | 0.53× |
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 2,083 | $223 | 3.2% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 17 | $21.04 | 37.2% | 1,110 | 1183.0 | 0.94× |
| CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $4.10 | 11.2% | 1,543 | 1832.8 | 0.84× |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 14.4% | $0.69 | 3.0% | 2,852 | 2922.7 | 0.98× |
| MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 70.2% | $0.41 | 8.7% | 14,673 | 14224.8 | 1.03× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/tiger, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.02%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.80 | 87.02% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $3.80 | 87.45% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $3.80 | 87.05% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $3.80 | 87.08% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $3.80 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $3.80 | 86.61% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $3.80 | 87.01% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $3.80 | 86.64% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $3.80 | 86.71% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.80 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $3.80 | 86.71% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $3.80 | 87.21% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.80 | 87.04% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $3.80 | 86.78% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $3.80 | 87.03% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $3.80 | 87.04% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%classified 0.1%red 0.0%pink 5.8%mil spec 9.1%restricted 14.4%violet 70.2%best hit $373 (98.16x)